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October 15, 2003
J2 Review: The Battle for Promotion

To begin our review of conditions in the J2, lets start with a look at the current standings:

Of all the teams in position for a chase at the stage title, Niigata still looks like the favourite, though the team no longer plays with the sense of inevitability that was evident in the middle of the season. At one point, Niigata was so firmly in front that it almost seemed impossible for them to fail, but a bit of a slump over the past month has placed their title in a bit of jeopardy. Niigata remain in front, and have a four-point lead over third-place Kawasaki frontale. Effectively, that means that two wins and two draws in their last five matches should be enough to get them into the J1.

Niigata's great advantage, down the stretch, will be ther tremendous support they receive from hometown fans. Over the weekend, an amazing 40,000 people turned out for the match against Montedio Yamagata -- a team that is not even a real competitor. If this is any guide, the home match against Ventforet Kofu, on October 26, could very well sell out Niigata "Big Swan" Stadium.

Though this tremendous fan support certainly gives Niigata a boost, the team owes its first-place spot to a very talented lineup and a very deep bench. The battling swans have quality all over the pitch, including a deadly striker (Marcus) who leads the J2 in scoring, experienced midfielders like Motohiro Yamaguchi and Kentaro Suzuki, and a defence anchored by Hikaru Mita, a core member of Japan's Olympic team.

Albirex play an extremely aggressive style of football, using two converted forwards --Fabinho and Masahiro Fukazawa -- as their offensive midfielders. It remains to be seen whether this sort of lineup can succeed against J1 opposition, but in the J2, Niigata's four defenders plus volante and captain Yamaguchi have been able to handle the defensive tasks pretty much on their own, allowing Albirex to send five players into attack on almost every play. This strategy has worn down most opponents and allowed Marcos to dominate the league in scoring.

As we noted earlier, weak performances over the past month have allowed Sanfrecce and Frontale to close the gap, but considering the opposition they face inthe final five matches, Albirex are heavy favourites to take the J2 title. With their tremendous fan base, they will make a great addition to the J1, next season

At the start of the year, we viewed Sanfrecce Hiroshima as the heavy favourite to win the J2 championship, but like several teams before them who slipped into the J2 and had to fight their way back into the top-flight (Urawa Reds in 2000 and Cerezo Osaka in 2002), Sanfrecce have had difficulty performing up to expectations.

Part of the problem, certainly, has been the plague of injuries that affected the team over the course of the season. However, Sanfrecce are brimming with youngsters that seem destined for success in the future. Defenders Kenichi Uemura and Yuichi Komano, striker Genki Nakayama, and ALL FIVE starting midfielders have seen national team action at the U-20 or U-22 level (that includes veteran Cesar Sampaio, who was a star on Brazil's national team for many years).

The problems that Sanfrecce experienced this season may be related to the length of the J2 season. As with the Reds and Cerezo, before them, Sanfrecce's youngsters seemed to have difficulty "getting up" for every match -- particularly contests against some of the weaker opponents. The was some unflattering results in the middle of the season which saw Sanfrecce slip to a distant third place, at one point in mid-summer.

However, Sanfrecce seem to have responded well to the pressure, making a strong comeback in the latter half of the season and reclaiming second place. They still have a chance to take the league title if Niigata should falter (though that now looks like a remote possibility considering their schedule). Though Frontale are breathing down their necks, we still expect Sanfrecce to clinch one of the two promotion spots, albeit probably as the second-place team.

Kawasaki Frontale are one of the most "veteran" teams in the J2, carrying a number of players who have seen action in the J1, earlier in their careers. Though there are few "stars" on the squad, the team as a whole plays a very aggressive, offensive style that has produced more goals than any other team in the league. Strikers Juninho and Kazuki Ganaha, as well as former Kashima Antlers wing Augusto, provide most of the scoring punch, though the team has a variety of other options on offence.

Although effective team play and a high-powered offence allowed Kawasaki to advance into second place, temporarily, over the summer, the team does have some gaps on defence, and this has caused the team to slip behind Sanfrecce. In terms of momentum, though, Frontale has been the hottest of the three teams over the past month, having won every match they have played since September 13. Therefore, Kawasaki may still may have a chance to win promotion. Unfortunately, the schedule is the team's greatest enemy, as both Albirex and Sanfrecce have relatively easy opponents down the stretch, while Kawasaki must play Ventforet Kofu, Avispa Fukuoka and Montedio Yamagata, as well as the season finale against Hiroshima.

The one positive thing that can be said is that Frontale's fate is still in theiur own hands. If the race is still up in the air at that time (and it will be as long as Frontale win all their matches), the final match of the year will give them a chance to knock off Sanfrecce at home, in Todoroki Stadium. Thus, if they win all of their remaining matches, Frontale can claim a ticket to the top-flight division. Unfortunately, Hiroshima has an easy schedule apart from that final match, and if Frontale falter, their fate may have already been decided by the time the head-to-head finale takes place.

The biggest surprise package in the entire J.League, this season, has been Ventforet Kofu. The team had already begun their climb out of disgraceful futility last season, finishing in seventh place in 2002 after two years mired at the bottom of the J2 basement. However, nobody would have guessed at the start of the year that the team could still be in contention for a trip to the J1, with only five matches remaining in the season. Certainly, the remaining chance is only mathematical. There is a better chance of warm hugs and cameraderie between supporters at the next England-Turkey match than there is of Verntforet winning promotion this season. But even a fourth-place finish will be a remarkable accomplishment for a team that contains only two players with significant J1 experience, and hails from the smallest town of any J.League club.

Kofu have made their climb to respectability on the back of some extremely tenacious defending. Although their goal differential, at +12, is well below that of the three leaders, Kofu has allowed fewer goals than ten of the eleven other J2 clubs. The base of this defence -- the back line of Alair, Yosuke Ikehata, Kenji Nakada and Shinya Nasu -- was cultivated last year by current S-Pulse head coach Takeshi Oki. This season, with another year under their belts, the defence has grown more reliable, and though their tireless, almost frenetic scrambling movement to the ball is still the main source of success, they seem to be gaining in poise and control, as well.

However, the main reason for the team's fourth-place position this year is the acquisition of two key offensive contributors -- the only two members of the team with significant J1 experience. Midifielder Daisuke Tonoike was signed from the Yokohama Marinos in the offseason, whereas Takafumi Ogura was picked up as a free signing after Consadole Sapporo released him at the end of the 2002 season. Both have made tremendous contributions, taking some of the burden off of Ventforet's ace striker, Ken Fujita. Ogura, in particular, has established himself as the "elder statesman" on the team, providing both leadership and team spirit. Ventforet is a small-town club if there ever was one. The whole of Yamanashi prefecture has just 800,000 people, less than the average yearly attendance for teams like Urawa Reds or Kashima Antlers, and there are some football stadiums in Europe and South America that could accomodate the entire population of Kofu city (102,000)!. Thus, Ventforet's lack of finances will probably make it difficult for the team to make the sort of player acquisitions it needs to win promotion to the J1. Nevertheless, the results this year have been a source of tremendous local pride, and there is good reason to believe that Ventforet can remain in the upper half of the table next season, as well. Perhaps a J2 championship is a futile dream for such a small club, but certainly Ventforet have provided the league with a Cinderella story if there ever was one

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