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March 1, 2004
Preseason Forecasts

This season, the job of forecasting the outcome of the J.League championship race was more difficult than ever before. Not only has the league achieved a high level of parity, as demonstrated last year, but the number of player exchanges during the offseason has been rising year by year, allowing teams to make rapid and dramatic improvements to their competitiveness. Though some teams clearly are "more equal" than others, the simple fact is that with a few lucky breaks and top-notch performances from a few key players, as many as ten or eleven teams are good enough to have at least an outside chance of claiming the title this season.

Nevertheless, we have done our best to analyse each team's prospects for the 2004 season and provide our best prognositication of the linely outcome for the first stage, which kicks off in just two weeks. We look forward to an exciting and thrill-filed season, and hope that our readers will enjoy our coverage of the 2004 festivities!

Click on the icons below for our preseason report on each team

J1 Team Forecasts for 2004

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J1 Team Forecasts for 2004

1-1 (PK 3-4)

Not surprisingly, both teams approached this match a bit cautiously. Both have already seen several players sidelined during the preseason, and seemed eager to avoid unnecessary injury, but more importantly, both have been busy with Asian Champions League matches in February, and probably will want to save their energy until opening day of the regular season. Though the pace picked up considerably in the final 20 minutes, the first hour of play was not all that impressive. During the first ten minutes, both teams put the ball in the net, but both were called back for quite legitimate offsides calls. After the initial flurry, the match settled down into a mildly entertaining, but essentially passionless exchange of feint & thrust -- parry & countrthrust.

Jubilo did a good job of exploiting the space on the wings, behind Dutra and Yukihiko Sato, who have always had a tendency to drift a bit too far forward on the wing. If their midfield had been just a bit crisper, and more energetic, they might have produced a goal on two or three occasions, but Yokohama's two central defenders -- Yuji Nakazawa and Naoki Matsuda (both recently returned from health-related layoffs) were always equal to the task. Yokohama, on the other hand, had less effective midfield play and passing work, but they did generate the occasional dangerous counter, led by Tatsuhiko Kubo and Ahn Jung-Hwan. Twice, Jubilo were bailed out by sliding tackles at the edge of the box that just barely broke up a counterattacking rush. But neither team could score a cgoal that actually counted, during the first 45 mintues.

After halftime, the dance continued, back and forth, back and forth like some hypnotic tango. It wasnt until about the 60 minute mark that the intensity began to pick up, and both teams started looking for the crucial goal that would produce a victory. As the match entered its final half hour, Jubilo seemed to have the slight advantage, thanks to superior midfield movement and slightly crisper passes. But just when it was beginning to look like Jubilo were on the verge of a goal, fate . . . and referee Masayoshi Okano . . . intervened.

In the 65 minute, Sato made a move down the right wing and lobbed what looked like a relatively harmless ball into the box for Akihiro Endo. Midfielder Takashi Fukunishi seemed to have the play well covered, as the two ran diagonally across the box, away from goal. But as Fukunishi tried to jostle a bit for position, endo suddenly lost his footing and went head-over-heels to the turf. It clearly was not a foul, but it didnt seem like a dive either. Based on repeated replays, it seems that Endo just lost his footing on the wet turf and landed on his backside. But the ever-contorversial Okano pointed to the penalty spot and then -- to add insult to injury -- showed Fukunishi a yellow card. Daisuke Oku converted from the spot, and suddenly Yokohama were in front.

This brought the first truly enthusiastic push from Jubilo of the entire match. For the next ten minutes they stepped up the pressure with rapid movement and numbers, in the center of the pitch, with occasional overlapping runs down the wing to create a scoring opportunity. The substitution of veteran Masashi Nakayama raised the tempo even further, and Yokohama were pressed back deeper and deeper into their end. But two defensive substitutions by coach Okada seemed to stem the tide, and it looked like the Marinos would claim victory. But with five minutes left, defender Hideto Suzuki dashed forward to collect a clearance from the Yokohama zone, and fed Rodrigo Gral, just to the right of the box. Gral put on a nice feint and drove past one defender into the area, then drilled a perfect, grass-cutting pass that met Norihiro Nishi in full gallop, for an easy toe-in from a meter out.

After the burst of excitement over the final 20 or 30 minutes, the crowd were looking forward to a dramatic finish. What they got, instead, was a farce. Due to the recent decision to do away with ALL overtime, the closely-fought match was to be decided on penalty kicks. When this fact was announced, the crowd gave the loudest response of the afternoon, booing the travesty of deciding this sort of contest on the basis of a crap shoot. In the end, Jubilo prevailed, thanks to a nice save by keeper Yohei Sato and a blown shot by Akihiro Endo which sailed over the bar. But this is not the way to decide championships, and we hope the crowd's response will send a message to the League as soon as possible. Whatever the arguments against extra time -- and there are many good ones -- PK shootouts are even a worse solution. A shared championship, surely, would be more palatable to fans than the travesty of a cup decided, after 90 minutes of hard work by both teams, on what is hardly more meaningful than flipping a coin.

Lineups:

Tatsuya Enomoto, Yukihiko Sato (Masahiro Ohashi 68), Naoki Matsuda, Yuji Nakazawa, Dutra, Eisuke Nakanishi, Yasuhiro Endo, Yasuhiro Hato, Daisuke Oku, Tatsuhiko Kubo , Ahn Jung-Hwan (Norihisa Shimizu 68) .

Yosuke Sato, Hideto Suzuki, Makoto Tanaka, Takahiro Yamanishi, (Takahiro Kawamura 87), Takashi Fukinishi, Toshihiro Hattori, Norihiro Nishi, Hiroshi Nanami, Toshiya Fujita, Rodrigo Gral, Yasumasa Nishino (Masashi Nakayama 70).

Rumours and Rumblings

Black and White Too Dull?

Since the new owner goes by the name of the Crimson Group, the natural colour choice would be . . . (what else). . . "crimson". This actually would be a good fit with the team's maritime theme (including the name "Vissel" which is supposedly a combination of the words "victory" and "vessel"). Though folks in Alabama might argue copyright infringement, Vissel fans could start calling themselves the "Crimson Tide".

Unfortunately, its a bit too early to take this as a symbolic step in the right direction for the team. In their official announcement (in Japanese), the company indicated that the colour it plans to adopt is "enji-iro": a light, reddish-purple. Naturally we will have to wait until the uniforms are actually released to know what shade will be adopted. But if the "enji-iro" colour that Kobe adops is anything like the "enji-iro" seat cushions on my mother-in-law's sofa, some fans might be tempted to hide their faces in embarassment.

Just call them the "Vissel Puce".

Olympians Prepare for Home Leg

The Olympians could face a tough test in the home leg as well. The schedule for these matches was announced some time after the J.League schedule, and since some in the J.League establishment apparently expected Japan to cruise to three easy wins in the UAE, nobody thought it necessary to adjust the league schedule accordingly. Since many of the U-23 players are crucial to their club teams' successes, teams might ask to have them take part in the season opening matches on Saturday. But the first Olympic match is Sunday night, against Bahrain, who held Japan scoreless in the first leg. With little time for rest, the youngsters have three matches scheduled next week, followed by yet another round of J.League matches the subsequent weekend. In addition to concerns about how this will affect the Olympic team's performance, the Urawa Reds are no doubt particularly worried about how fresh their players will be, since four of their key players are included in the Olympic squad!

Below is the full roster for Japan's Olympic qualification matches: