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September 25, 2005

Deadlock Drama in Osaka

Unfortunately, most other matchups were pale by comparison -- only the battle between 17th and 18th ranked Verdy and Vissel carried any real high stakes. Rainy weather and slick pitch conditions probably played a part in this unimpressive showing, but the general impression we had after watching an entire day's worth of football was that everyone else is just playing out the string, and watching to see whether Gamba or the Antlers will emerge as the league champion.

Anyway, here are the scores from Saturday's matches:

Date	Home	.	Visitor	Venue
24 Sep		0 - 0		Saitama Stadium
24 Sep		2 - 1		Todoroki Stadium
24 Sep		1 - 1		Kobe Universiade
24 Sep		1 - 0		Iwata (Yamaha) Stadium
24 Sep		2 - 1		Ichihara SeasideStadium
24 Sep		3 - 1		Mizuho Stadium
24 Sep		3 - 3		Expo70 "Banpaku" Stad.
25 Sep		0 - 0		Ajinomoto Stadium
25 Sep		0 - 1		Niigata "Big Swan" Std.

3 - 3

The Antlers started off with a quick offensive push. perhaps thinking that the best way to blunt the fury of the Gamba attack was to peg them back with an early goal. This un-Antlers-like surge of attack was just one aspect of the adjustments both teams had to make when facing their most formidable opponent. The Antlers nearly got a goal right off the bat, as a long ball for Alex Mineiro nearly caught the Gamba defence sleeping, and only a desperate sliding clearance by Satoru Yamaguchi saved the day. But in the 9 minute, the Antlers did get their opening goal, as Alex Mineiro played a beautiful post pass to Mitsuo Ogasawara, dashing forward from his position in defensive midfield and into the clear on the left side of the penalty box. Ogasawara squeezed off a shot before the defence could recover, and the Antlers had the early edge.

But you knew it was only a matter of time before the high-powered Gamba offence began to produce scoring chances of their own, and sure enough, by the middle of the first half Gamba had taken over the initiative, and were starting to press for the equaliser. However, the offensive flow that Gamba displayed was unlike their usual flowing, lightning quick thrusts. The Antlers did a good job of preventing any of Gamba's attacking trio -- Fernandinho, Araujo and Masashi Oguro -- from finding space in the attacking zone, and consequently Gamba had to look for less direct avenues to attack. The break finally came in the 23 minute, when Toshihiro Matsushita dashed forward on the left wing and found enough space to fire a low, line-drive cross as the three attacking players dashed forward. Oguro allowed the ball to sail through to an unguarded Araujo at the far post, and the Gamba ace volleyed it home.

The next ten minutes produced chances on both ends, but it seemed like Gamba were beginning to step on the accelerator, trying to overwhelm the Antlers with sheer speed and energy. But Kashima is a team that knows how to use their opportunities effectively, and as half time approached, Masaki Fukai used his speed to blow past Sidiclei on the left edge of the box, and the Gamba defender had no choice but to shoulder the diminutive Antlers striker off the ball, picking up a foul in the process. Ogasawara's free kick was a low, hard drive that seemed certain to hit at least one of the jumble of players in front of goal -- either attacker or defender. But somehow the ball managed to find its way through the maze without touching anyone, and slipped just inside the far post to give the Antlers a half time lead.

Gamba came out after the break with a flurry of pressure, determined to equalise quickly. At first, the Antlers seemed to stand up to the pressure pretty well, but in the 51 minute, a horrendous blunder by Hitoshi Sogahata gave Gamba the equaliser they were looking for. A defender passed the ball back to the Antlers keeper as the Gamba players put pressure on the ball, expecting Sogahata to hoof the ball downfield. But either he took his eye off the ball, or he slipped slightly, because his kick was a weak squib that Oguro collected at the edge of the box and calmly stuffed into the net.

For a few minutes, it seemed like the Antlers would allow this goal to break their concentration,l but after a breif spell of Gamba pressure, it was actually Kashima who started to create the majority of the offensive pressure. As the hour mark passed, both teams started to step up their pressure, but it was the Antlers who were getting the better of play. But in the 75 minute, for reasons which defy explanation, Toninho Cerezo pulled off the highly effective Masaki Fukai and replaced him with Takayuki Suzuki. Cerezo probably thought that Suzuki's greater height and power would be useful down the stretch, on set plays. But the flip side of that substitution was the loss of fluidity and ball control on the attack. Almost immediately, the Antlers' attacks began to break down and Gamba started to counterattack more dangerously. With five mintues left, Gamba had a golden opportunity as Yasuhito Endo made a dash out of midfield, beat the offsides trap, and went away on goal with only the keeper to beat. But Sogahata made up for his blunder earlier with a spectacular dash off his line and a dive to his left, palming Endo's shot just wide of the right post.

The clock spun inexorably towards the 90th minute, and for the first time in the match, it began to look like the match might end in a draw after all. But on the stroke of full time, Oguro received a long pass on the left side of the box. feinted towards goal and then dashed to the end line. His shot was from a very narrow angle, and probably would have been collected by Sogahata, but it hit a defender on the way through and bounded at the feet of Araujo, who immediately slammed it into the nylon. The crowd erupted in celebration as Gamba took the lead for the first time in the contest. It looked for certain that the home team would prevail, and extend their lead at the top of the table.

But on the very next sequence of play, a long lead pass from the Antlers' back line was headed on, into space, by Daiki Iwamasa, who had moved forward into attack in order to provide three big targets up front. Suzuki raced madly after the ball while Alex Mineiro sprinted forward on the opposite flank, and suddenly the Antlers had a three-on-two situation at the edge of the Gamba box. Suzuki showed great poise, turning up a shot of his own to fire the ball to a wide-open Alex Mineiro, on the other side of the box. Alex merely had to settle the ball and squeeze it past the keeper, and the Antlers had a dramatic last-second equaliser.

Though neither team was able to claim the spoils in this contest, it would be hard to ask for any better result. Not only did fans get a great show, but the two teams demonstrated clearly that either one would make a worthy champion. With nine weeks left to go, there is still a theoretical chance that one of the other teams in the race can overtake Gamba or Kashima. But apart from these two, we have not seen any team that really "deserves" to be there. The next nine weeks should hold a lot more excitement and thrills, so stay tuned. If the finish is anywhere near as dramatic as the final minutes of this contest, it will be well worth the wait.

Date: 24 Sept, 2005		Location: Expo '70 (Banpaku) Std.
3	1 1H 2 2 2H 1	3
Mitsuo Ogasawara (9') Mitsuo Ogasawara (40') Alex Mineiro (89')	Scoring	Araujo (27') Masashi Oguro (51') Araujo (89')
Fernandinho Sidiclei Yasuhito Endo Toshihiro Matsushita	Cautions	Masashi Motoyama Go Oiwa Fernando Ricardinho
Lineups: Yosuke Fujigaya, Sidiclei, Tsuneyasu Miyamoto, Satoru Yamaguchi, Toshihiro Matsushita (Akihiro Ienaga 80), Hideo Hashimoto, Yasuhito Endo, Takahiro Futagawa, Araujo, Fernandinho (Kota Yoshihara 80), Masashi Oguro . Hitoshi Sogahata, Takeshi Aoki, Go Oiwa, Daiki Iwamasa, Toru Araiba, Fernando, Mitsuo Ogasawara, Masaki Fukai (Takayuki Suzuki 76), Chikashi Masuda (Ricardinho 66), Masashi Motoyama (Takuya Nozawa 73), Alex Mineiro .

0 - 0

Not that the match was lacking in competitiveness and intensity. At least in terms of emotion and mutual animosity, this was a bitter contest. Its just that the content of play was so poor, and the number of opportunities squandered so large, that the most meaningful events were the injury-inducing clashes of bodies which saw Keisuke Tsuboi stretchered off and several other players hobbling about in pain.

The Marinos have clearly had the worst of it, this year, and look nothing at all like the championship contender that some pundits (the Rising Sun News NOT included) thought they would be at the start of the year. The widely publicised deal which sent Koji Yamase from the Marinos to the Reds, in a move that infuriated Reds fans, has turned out to be a non-issue as Yamase is not seeing any action even now that he is healthy. Both teams have lost high-profile foreigners (Ahn Jung-Hwan for the Marinos and Emerson for the Reds), but it is hard to attribute their troubles solely to this factor. It seems unlikely that either one would be more competitive if they had not lost these ace strikers. The malaise -- particularly in Yokohama -- seems to be much more a case of poor team coordination and lack of "spirit".

For the Reds, there are at least some signs that they could turn things around next season. They have plenty of money and a number of good young players. Obviously, they will need to find foreigners who are a bit more talented than Robson Ponte (who made a strong case for being the worst player on the pitch for either team), and coach Buchwald will have to start placing performance ahead of reputation, and let Tadaaki Hirakawa take over the starting left wing position from Alex Santos once and for all. But if the Reds can patch the two or three obvious holes in their lineup, they could be a top prospect next season.

For the Marinos, though, things will not be so easy. They are a much older team, on average, than the Reds, and apart from three or four players (defenders Yuji Nakazawa and Yuzo Kurihara, and the goal-keeping brothers Tetsuya and Tatsuya Enomoto), few of their big-name starters have really impressed this season. Though coach Okada has a reputation for being able to bring out the best in his players, he certainly did not do so this season. He may need to take a new broom to the clubhouse over the winter to sweep out some of the old and jaded players, if the Marinos are to get back to winning ways.

Date: 24 Sept, 2005		Location: Saitama Stadium
0	0 1H 0 0 2H 0	0
	Scoring
"Nene" de Brito	Cautions
Lineups: Ryota Tsuzuki, Keisuke Tsuboi (Hideki Uchidate 67), Satoshi Horinouchi, Fabio "Nene" de Brito, Nobuhisa Yamada, Makoto Hasebe, Keita Suzuki, Alex Santos (Tadaaki Hirakawa 71), Robson Ponte, Yuichiro Nagai (Tomislav Maric 76), Tatsuya Tanaka . Tetsuya Enomoto, Yuzo Kurihara, Naoki Matsuda, Yuji Nakazawa, Ryuji Kawai, Hayuma Tanaka, Magrao (Yoshiharu Ueno 82), Daisuke Nasu, Dutra, Daisuke Oku (Hideo Oshima 80), Rodrigo Gral, Daisuke Sakata (Masahiro Ohashi 72) .

1 - 0

Indeed, there were not many highlights in this contest, apart from those involving Mr. Nishimura, so lets just take a look at those two events and not worry about the rest of the match. After all, why would we want to consider the performances of the 22 players, when the antics of Mr. Nishimura were so much more exciting and meaningful.

The first incident occurred just 8 minutes into the match. Masashi "Gon" Nakayama was isolated in the penalty area against defender Yukio Tsuchiya, as a high cross was sent in. Nakayama had no prayer of reaching it, but rather than just give up on the play, he reached out, grabbed Tsuchiya's shirt, then flopped to the turf, pulling Tsuchiya down on top of him.

As you can see for yourself, there is little question about what actually happened. You can clearly see that Tsuchiya's hands are both free, and he is trying to keep his balance as Nakayama pulls him down. Considering Nakayama's reputation as one of the most inveterate play-actors ever to perform on the J.League stage, any competent official could have seen through the ruse. But Mr. Nishimura is not just any competent official -- far from it. Nakayama was awarded the spot kick, and promptly tallied his 150th career goal (at least 40 or 50 of which have been earned under similar circumstances. Perhaps Mssrs Nishimura, Okada and Yoshida should be listed among the career assist leaders?)

But in his effort to award this match to Jubilo, Mr. Nishimura got assistance, as well. Later int he half, Reysol equalised, only for the linesman to rule it out for offsides. Looking at the clip, it is not entirely clear whether or not the player closest to the camera (Cleber Santana) is offsides. He may be a few centimeters in front of his defender. But Cleber is never involved in the play, and all other Reysol players are clearly onside.

The ball was headed home by Kisho Yano, who was perhaps the"most onside" of all players in the Reysol attacking line. Under the revised offside rule, since Cleber neither touched the ball nor interfered with any of the defenders, or in any other way influenced the play, this should be a goal. No doubt Reysol coaches and administrators will want the J.League officiating committee to clarify their interpretation of the offside rule. It certainly would be "unfortunate" if a Japanese ref were to make this sort of call in an international match, and have FIFA reverse the result because, once again, "Japanese refs dont know the rules".

In any event, Reysol got screwed over royally, in a contest that they fully deserved to win. One only hopes that this does not have any bearing on the relegation race. "Travesty" has become a pretty common word in the J.League this season, but it would be the travesty of all travesties if Reysol were relegated, this year, simply in order to let Gon Nakayama break the 150 goal mark.

Date: 24 Sept, 2005		Location: Iwata (Yamaha) Stadium
1	1 1H 0 0 2H 0	0
Masashi Nakayama (9')	Scoring
Sho Naruoka	Cautions	Hidekazu Otani Tadatoshi Masuda
Lineups: Yoshikatsu Kawaguchi, Hideto Suzuki, Kim Jin-Kyu, Makoto Tanaka, Yoshiaki Ota, Takashi Fukunishi, Hiroshi Nanami (Masashi Nakayama 72) Shinji Murai, Sho Naruoka, Keisuke Funatani, Robert Cullen, Masashi Nakayama (Choi Yong-Soo 70) . Yuta Minami, Yasuhiro Hato, Norihiro Satsukawa (Tatsuya Yazawa 71), Yukio Tsuchiya, Tomokazu Myojin, Hidekazu Otani (Yuji Unozawa 84), Tadatoshi Masuda (Yuzo Kobayashi 59), Ryo Kobayashi, Tomonori Hirayama Cleber Santana Loureio, Kisho Yano, Keiji Tamada .

1 - 3

It is hard to think of anything else that could possibly go wrong for Grampus this year. The fact that they remain around the middle of the table is a testament to the team's resilience, and the hard work of not only the youngsters, but also the core defence, founded on veterans like Yutaka Akita, Masahiro Koga and Seigo Narazaki. But it would be asking a bit much of the team to expect them to rebound immediately from the loss of both Nelsinho and Luizao. The challlenge was made even more daunting by the opponent, Cerezo Osaka, who are not playing quite as well as their cross-town rivals Gamba, but certainly are having a good season. Even with captain Hideaki Morishima sitting out a yellow card suspension, this week, they were more than a match for the beached Red Whales.

Cerezo got off to a strong start, but it was not until the middle of the first half that they finally hit paydirt, as former JFL scoring champion Tastsuya Furuhashi cut into the box on the left side and sent a curling shot past the keeper. However, just before the break, Grampus pulled level on a strike from Naoshi Nakamura.

Under normal circumstances, you generally assume that the team which scores just before the break will receive a boost to morale, and come out strong in the second period. But on the contrary, Grampus looked flat coming out of the locker room and Cerezo quickly exploited the weakness in defensive marking to secure the victory. Three minutes after the intermission, rookie defender Kazuki Maeda found open space on a corner kick and headed home Furuhashi's cross, to tally his first J.League goal. Jpust moments after taking the lead, Cerezo extended it as veteran Akinori Nishizawa threw himself feet-first at a deflected shot from the left wing, and managed to toe it into the back corner.

Grampus quickly moved to address the problem, brining in in midfielder Keiuke Honda and former Gamba Osaka striker Satoshi Nakayama in a midfield position. The addition of these two big bodies in the center of the pitch halted the storm of offence that Cerezo had generated inthe ten minutes following half time, but it was not enough to get Grampus back into the contest. The score line remained unchanged as Cerezo advanced into the cluster of teams hanging 7-or-8 points back of the two leaders. Though we do not see any of these teams catching Gamba and Kashima, one can certainly take this as a sign that Cerezo are moving back into the ranks of contenders at long last. For Grampus, it looks like yet another year of disappointment. But what else is new?

Date: 24 Sept, 2005		Location: Mizuho Stadium
1	1 1H 1 0 2H 2	3
Naoshi Nakamura (44')	Scoring	Tatsuya Furuhashi (32') Kazuki Maeda (48') Akinori Nishizawa (51')
	Cautions	Takaaki Tokushige
Lineups: Seigo Narazaki, Makoto Kakuda, Yutaka Akita, Masahiro Koga, Claiton, An Yong-Ha, Kei Yamaguchi (Satoshi Nakayama 58), Yusuke Nakatani (Keisuke Honda 65), Toshiya Fujita, Naoshi Nakamura, Keita Sugimoto (Yohei Toyoda 78) . Motohiro Yoshida, Bruno Cuadros, Tomoya Maeda, Hiroshige Yanagimoto, Fabinho (Takanori Nunobe 89), Tomi Shimomura, Kiyokazu Kudo, Ze Carlos, Tatsuya Furuhashi, Akinori Nishizawa (Teruaki Kurobe 82), Tadaaki Tokushige (Hiroshi Miyahara 69) .

1 - 1

But 17th-placed Verdy responded in the middle of the first half, with Washington soaring high over a pack of defenders to head home a free kick from Takuya Yamada. Thereafter, neither team could accomplish much and following ascoreless second half, both teams took their frustrations away with them, and will have to remain in the cellar for at least another week.

Date: 24 Sept, 2005		Location: Kobe Universiade
1	1 1H 1 0 2H 0	1
Atsuhiro Miura (1')	Scoring	Washington (30')
Martin Muller	Cautions
Lineups: Seiji Honda, Park Kang-Jo, Martin Muller, Kunie Kitamoto, Hideo Tanaka (Sho Kitano 84), Atsuhiro Miura, Akihiro Endo, Naoya Saeki, Pavel Horvath, Ivo Ulich, Tomoyuki Hirase (Hiromi Kojima 59) . Yoshinari Takagi, Atsushi Yoneyama, Kentaro Hayashi, Kenichi Uemura, Takuya Yamada, Daigo Kobayashi (Takeshi Hirano 85), Kazuyuki Toda, Takahito Soma, Kazuki Hiramoto (Yoshiyuki Kobayashi 45), Gilberto "Jill" Goncalves (Takayuki Morimoto 76), Washington .

2 - 1

But JEF responded just before the break on a rather unusual call, as Toshihide Saito dashed out to try to clear a corner kick, and collided headlong with Seiichro Maki . Since Maki was standing perfectly still and Saito had a full head of steam, it looked like a pretty brutal collision. However, it certainly looked like Saito was trying to get to the ball, and there is nothing in the rule book that says a defender has to avoid collisions with opposing players, when trying to clear a high ball. In the end, this was a judgement call and one where we have to concede the referee's right to call it as he sees it. Nevertheless, S-Pulse had to feel badly done, as Yuki Abe stroked home the PK.

Neither team could add to the score in the second half, ans as the match moved into injury time it looked like it would end in a draw. But on one of their final offensive rushes of the contest, Yuichi Yoda -- who has become the talisman this year for late strikes by JEF -- surged around the right flank and fired a low pass/shot towards the left post. Maki slid feed-first to bundle the ball into the net, and JEF claimed the late winner.

Date: 24 Sept, 2005		Location: Ichihara Seaside Std.
2	1 1H 1 0 2H 0	0
Yuki Abe (39') Seiichiro Maki (89')	Scoring	Cho Jae-Jin (32')
	Cautions	Toshihide Saito Daisuke Ichikawa Masaaki Saawanobori Akihiro Hyodo
Lineups: Tomonori Tateishi, Kozo Yuki, Ilya Stoyanov, Daisuke Saito, Satoru Yamagishi (Yuichi Yoda 77), Yuki Abe, Yuto Sato, Masataka Sakamoto, Naotake Hanyu (Hiroki Mizumoto 79), Seiichiro Maki, Takenori Hayashi (Kohei Kudo 64) . Yohei Nishibe, Daisuke Ichikawa, Toshihide Saito, Kazumichi Takagi, Takahiro Yamanishi, Keisuke Ota (Junpei Takaki 70), Teruyoshi Ito, Kota Sugiyama (Masaaki Sawanobori 48), Akihiro Hyodo, Marquinhos, Cho Jae-Jin .

2 - 1

Ardija managed a late consolation goal from Yusuke Shimada, but never really looked much like getting back into the contest. As a result, Frontale move above the middle of the table, and seem to be playing very competitive football in the second half of the season. Ardija, however, are fading after a very strong start to the season, and are slowly slipping towards relegation danger. At the start of the year, we thought that Ardija would be a relegation candidate, but after their strong start to the season, it would be very disappointing indeed if a late collapse sent them back down.

Date: 24 Sept, 2005		Location: Todoroki Stadium
2	0 1H 0 2 2H 1	1
Kazuki Ganaha(51') Yoshinobu Minowa (58')	Scoring	Yusuke Shimada (88')
Kazuki Ganaha	Cautions	Masato Saito
Lineups: Takashi Aizawa, Yoshinobu Minowa, Shuhei Terada, Hiroki Ito, Yusuke Mori (Masaru Kurotsu 89), Kengo Nakamura (Tomoaki Kuno 82), Hiroyuki Taniguchi, Augusto de Souza, Marcus de Morais, Kazuki Ganaha (Hideki Sahara 70), Juninho . Hiroki Aratani, Takuro Nishimura, Toninho, Seiichiro Okuno, Daisuke Tomita, Masato Saito, Jin Kanazawa, Tatsunori Hisanaga (Yusuke Shimada 64), Chikara Fujimoto, Livonir "Tuto" Ruschel (Koji Morita 76), Yoshiteru Yamashita (Naoto Sakurai 57) .

0 - 0

Oita is not in any better shape. They trail FC Tokyo in the standings, and looked very much the second-best team in this match, even if they did get an equal share of the points. On the basis of this outing, one would have to assume that Trinita and FC Tokyo are both very much in the "race for relegation" even if they do have a bit of a cushion over current cellar-dwellers Verdy and Vissel.

Date: 25 Sept, 2005		Location: Ajinomoto Stadium
0	0 1H 0 0 2H 0	0
	Scoring
Akira Kaji	Cautions
Lineups: Yoichi Doi, Akira Kaji, Jean Carlo Witte, Teruaki Moniwa, Ryuji Fujiyama, Yohei Kajiyama, Yasuyuki Konno, Norio Suzuki, (Sasa Salcedo 55), Ryoichi Kurisawa (Naohiro Ishikawa 76), Mitsuhiro Toda (Yoshiro Abe 82), Lucas Severino . Shusaku Nishikawa, Tomoki Fukaya, Takashi Miki, Yohei Fukumoto, Takashi Umeda, Tulio, Edmilson, Takauyuki Yoshida (Ryosuke Kijima 89), Yuichi Nemoto, Daiki Takamatsu (Masato Yamasaki 77), Magno Alves (Teppei Nishiyama 89), .

0 - 1

For Sanfrecce, meanwhile, the contributions of the many young stars who have come up through Hiroshima's excellent youth programme continues to be the top story. Though Sanfrecce still need a bit more experience and "maturity" before they can contend for a title, there is no denying their talent and he exciting nature of their play. U-20 striker Shunsuke Maeda was rewarded for his hard work in recent weeks with a starting opportunity, and he repaid the coaches by claiming the lone goal of the match, cutting in front of the keeper to flick on Hayato Sato's header into the back of the net. The win moves Sanfrecce into the cluster of teams that all trail the two leaders by about 6-8 points, and thus are still theoretically in the chase.

Date: 25 Sept, 2005		Location: Niigata "Big Swan" Std.
0	0 1H 1 0 2H 0	1
	Scoring	Shunsuke Maeda (42')
Fabinho Isao Honma Anderson Lima	Cautions	Shunsuke Maeda "Beto" Alaves
Lineups: Yosuke Nozawa, Anderson Lima, Naoki Takahashi, Shigenori Hagimura, Naoya Kikuchi, Isao Honma (Yasushi Kita 45), Hiroyoshi Kuwahara (Daisuke Aono 73), Fabinho, Edmilson, Yusaku Ueno (Ryuji Sueoka 77), Shingo Suzuki . Takashi Shimoda, Yuichi Komano, Dininho, Shogo Nishikawa, Kota Hattori, Gakuya Shigehara, Kazuyuki Morisaki, Shinichiro Kuwata (Ri Han-Jae 45), Joubert "Beto" Alaves (Shusuke Maeda 70), Galvao (Hiroto Mogi 73), Hayato Sato .

As noted above, the draw between Gamba Osaka and Kashima Antlers has allowed several teams to close the gap slightly, and there is now a group of five clubs that are hanging about 6-8 points back of the leaders. Theoretically, at least, this indicates that the chase is far from over, and that a substantial pack of competitors will all take part in the race to the finish line.

In numerical terms, that is probably true. It may be late November before this cluster of second-tier teams are eliminated from contention altogether. However, even though the drawn match between the Antlers and Gamba provided those chasing with a bit of a boost, it also demonstrated the reasons why we do not see any other team claiming the title this year (well . . . . barring further egregious intervention by the officials). The two leaders are at the top of the table due to their superior abilities, particularly in terms of team play. While it is at least conceivable that one of these two might trip up in the final stretch, it is hard to even imagine BOTH teams suffering from that sort of collapse in form.

Looking at the relative prospects for Gamba and Kashima, Gamba's current one-point lead is really all that separates the two, regardless of how you analyze the situation. Kashima plays slightly more difficult opponents overall (at least on paper), but Gamba has more away games. Gamba has a few players at risk of disciplinary suspension (most of the top Antlers players have already sat out a suspension and have nearly a clean slate for the stretch run); however, Kashima has more injury concerns. In other words, there is nothing for an oddsmaker to latch on to as a means of forecasting the outcome. There is always the chance that one team or the other will just fold under the pressure, and let the other stroll to the finish line. But at the moment, we think that such a collapse is unlikely. Certainly it would be best for all concerned if the race to the wire is as close and thrilling as possible. Considering all the unfortunate incidents that have transpired already, in 2005, an exciting and hard-fought title chase would go a long way towards making up for the other disappointments. In any event, stay tuned. There is sure to be a lot of football to discuss in the coming weeks.

Rumours and Rumblings

J2 Race Reaches Final Stretch

As the J2 season enters the final round of its four-round-robin format, it is now an opportune time to take a look at the situation facing the main candidates for promotion. Although Kyoto Purple Sanga has already more or less clinched one of the two automatic promotion spots (a mere 8 points from its final 11 matches would be enough to make this a mathematical certainty), the other one automatic spot is still far from certain, and the promotion-relegation spot for the team finishing third is totally up for grabs, with everyone except Yokohama FC and Thespa Kusatsu still at least theoretically in contention. However, barring an absolutely remarkable run by one of the teams in the lower half of the table, we can assume that the promotion sweepstakes will involve basically six teams. This week, we take a quick look at each one of the contenders, as well as estimating their prospects for promotion.

As we have already noted, Kyoto Purple Sanga are already in a dominant position at the top of the table, and should clinch promotion in another two or three weeks. There is slightly more uncertainty about whether or not they will win the division title, but the only team with a really significant chance of cathing them are Avispa Fukuoka, who play Kyoto head-to-head at Nishikyogoku Stadium, next weekend. A win next weekend will pretty much cement the Purple Sanga's position at the top of the table.

Under coach Koichi Hashiratani, the Purple Sanga got off to a thundering start this season, and it breifly appeared like they would clinch the title before the season was half over. The team's lead grew so large by summer that the players began to get a bit complacent and Hashiratani started experimenting a bit with his lineups, perhaps in preparation for the personnel reshuffle that is sure to take place at the end of the year. This caused them to drop a few matches over the months of July and August, but they still maintain a double-digit cushion of points over their nearest challenger and will probably pick up the pace over the next month as they try to nail down the J2 title. Kyoto have been led by their Brazilian dynamic duo of Alemao and Paulinho, weho have both remained in the top ten scoring table for the entire season. However, as you would expect on a team coached by Hashiratani, the emphasis is very much on teamwork, rather than the contributions of a few "stars". About half of the team has former J1 experience and the average age of players is around 22 or 23, so it seems likely that the team will be able to continue improving even after they win promotion.

Avispa Fukuoka are currently in a strong position to claim the second automatic promotion spot, but if they want to do so, they will have to overcome both a lack or real "experience" in top-;level football, as well as a tendency to fade at the end of the season which goes back all the way to their collapse at the end of 2001, which saw them relegated in a promotion-relegation contest. The team has remained in the J2 ever since, and though they are performing fairly well this year, the team has a very noticeable lack of "star power". Certainly there are advantages to having a team in which all players make copntributions, and there is no huge gap in ability. However, one has the feeling that this factor might also turn out to have its drawbacks during the stretch run, when you like to have a key player step up and impose himself on the matches.

Fukuoka does not have many players that can fill such a role. They do have a lot of promising youngsters, including several local boys who are graduates of nearby Kunimi High School. But the only players with significant J1 experience are defensive stalwart Masao Kiba and journeyman midfielders Seiji Koga and Yuki Matsushita. Last season, Avispa faded down the stretch and ended up finishing third. They subsequently lost the promotion-relegation series to Kashiwa Reysol. This year, Avispa enters he final round of 13 matches with a six-point lead over the third-placed challenger. However, all four of the teams chasing them have at least one or two "big game" players. Worst of all, they face two of their top challengers -- Ventforet Kofu and Vegalta Sendai -- in the final two matches of the season. If either (or both) of those teams are in the race at that point, we think Avispa might fold under the pressure once again. Nevertheless, this is the best chance they have had at promotion since going down in 2001, and the strong support Avispa receives from the local fans will certainly be a factor in their favour. The year-ending clash at home, against the equally well-supported Vegalta promises to be a showdown of thunderous proportions.

The teams in third and fourth position, as we enter the final stretch, are both candidates for the role of Cinderella -- small-town clubs without a lot of money or fame, but with a very tough and determined work ethic, as well as the adrenaline-inducing feeling of having an entire community unite in support of their dreams of J1 promotion. Of the two, Montedio Yamagata probably has the better chance of claiming a second or third-place spot, if only because they came so close last season, and will be working that much harder to avoid disappointment for a second consecutive year

In 2004, Montedio went into their last regular-season match at home needing to defeat Avispa Fukuoka in order to claim third place, and a promotion-relegation series against the 16th-ranked J1 club. But they lost their concentration somewhere along the line, and were blown out in the final match, much to the disappointment of the locals in Yamagata prefecture. Montedio are a relatively mature team, with a good mix of journeymen with former J1 experience, club veterans who have come up with the team and played with them since the J2 was inaugurated, and recent acquisitions fromthe low end of J1 club rosters. The most notable of these are strikerd Ryuta Hara, who was picked up from Nagoya Grampus, and Yutaro Abe, acquired on loan from Yokohama Marinos.

The team's greatest strength is its defence, which has conceded fewer goals than any other team in the league.. Like the "mountain king" warriors of old, who ruled this region centuries ago, the strategy is to hold off all attacks with a fortresslike defensive set, and then use lightning counterattacks to produce the one or two goals needed to claim victory. If there is one weakness on the team, however, it is their inability to come back from a deficit. Yamagata have scored just 40 goals this season -- considerably less than most of the other challengers -- and only Ryuta Hara is listed among the top 20 scorers in the J2 (Abe is ranked 25th). Though we think Montedio has a good shot at a third-place finish this year, they are likely to finish the season as they have done all season long -- slow and steady, rather than with flashing lights and fireworks.

Ventforet Kofu has a great deal in common with Montedio Yamagata. Both are small teams from mountainous, rural prefectures. Both struggled in the early years of the J2, due to a lack of local support, financial backing and personnel, yet both managed to turn their fortunes around by developing small but fanatically loyal local fan clubs which have steadily expanded along with the financial and footballing fortunes of the club. Indeed, the two teams are nearly identical in every aspect except the football.

When you turn to the performance of the two teams on the football pitch, however, they could not possibly be any more different. Whereas Yamagata is largely a team of journeymen picked up from other clubs, Ventforet Kofu has picked many of its key personnel from local schools, or from the youth club of Shimizu S-Pulse, which maintains a strong relationship with its neighbouring J2 club and supplies many youngstyers who cut their teeth at Ventforet and then "graduate" to starting positions for S-Pulse. Montedio is a "star-less" club that thrives on defence, but can sometimes suffer from lack of goals. Ventforet lives and dies with the fortunes of its scoring aces, and has spawned a string of Brazilian goal-scoring maestros over the years, including Baron, Jorginho, Juninho, and this season, the current favourite to win the J2 golden boot -- Jader "Bare" Spindler. The defence, on the other hand, has had a tendency to break down from time to time. This year, one of the team's key players has been young keeper Yuya Sato, who has bailed his defence out week after week.

The conventional wisdom is that teams which are carried by their solid defences usually go farther in league play than those that depend on high-powered offences. For that reason, and the fact that the two teams enter the final round of play neck and neck in the standings, we think that Montedio probably has the better prospects of claiming the third promotion spot this season. Injuries to Bare and to veteran Takafumi Ogura -- the club's only "big name" player -- will also pose a problem for Ventforet.

However, if Bare and Ogura can get back into the lineup for the final spurt, the team does have a few factors working in their favour, as well. Firts, Ventforet's schedule in the early stages of the fourth round-robin is comparatively easy. They get to face two key rivals -- Montedio and Consadole -- at home, and they do not play the two league powerhouses until the final two weeks of the season. If Ventforet can use that favourable schedule hang on to third place until the final two weeks, they may get to play the two toughest opponents -- Purple Sanga and Avispa -- after those two teams have alreacy clinched promotion. Furthermore, while defensive teams generally do better over the long run, when it comes down to winning one or two crucial matches at the end of the season, a strong offensive punch usually wins the day. On the final weekend of the season, while Avispa and Vegalta Sendai are battling each other head to head, Ventforet will host Kyoto Purple Sanga at Kose Sports Park. Should two or three of those teams be fighting for a promotion spot on December 3, those battles could very well overshadow the J1 contests the same weekend. Whatever the case may be, Ventforet are likely to hang around until the very end, and at the very least, will be the team which determines who finishes in what position.

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The last two contenders, Vegalta and Consadole are located in the two most northern cities represented by a J.League team. Both lagging a bit behind the others, and therefore have to be viewed as outsiders, even though they still have time to overtake the others to claim third -- or possibly even second place. There is no shortage of reasons why we should consider both to be clear contenders. FOr one thing, both have been in the J1 before. In addition, both teams have an abundance of experience and the money to sign players on loan to help with their final spurt (in fact, they have already done so. Vegalta picked up veteran Koji Kumagai from the Antlers and young defender Seitaro Tomisawa from Tokyo Verdy, both on loan, and Consadole signed midfielder Masaya Nishitani from the Urawa Reds). Most important, the two both have strong fan bases, and if they can ever get their act together on the pitch, theycould have the finances to stay up in the J1 onmce they get there.

The problem is that both teams have not performed as well as one would expect, based on the personnel they have available. Though the two teams enjoy strong local support from the fans, they have not enjoyed particularly adept management or coaching. Indeed, both teams got off to terrible starts, and the only reason why they are even in contention is that they have been on winning streaks since early summer. It is possible that the recent performance reflects the fact that the two teams have resolved their internal problems. If so, then they may be able to catch and overtake teams like Ventforet and Montedio. If so, both would stand a strong chance of winning the promotion-relegation series with the J1's 16th-ranked team (due to both fan support and the fact that both have been in the J1 before). However, we think there is a very strong possibility that the recent run of success is just a flash in the pan. After winning almost all of their contests during the third round-robin, Consadole and Vegalta may find it difficult to sustain the effort for another 13 matches. At the moment, we think that fans in the great white north will to have to wait another year before they can rejoin the top-flight division.

Here are the J2 standings as of September 25: