---

November 23, 2005

Unbelieva-ball

Yes, we know that the score line of the Cerezo-Trinita match makes it seem like the two played to a draw, but as coach Pericles Chamusca can surely tell you, that was only because a panicked linesman, obviously afraid of seeing the home team beaten by a last minute strike, disallowed a perfectly good goal by Oita Trinita with a clearly mistaken offsides call. Even WITH the help of the referee, Cerezo earned just a single point, thus leaving all three teams -- Cerezo, Gamba and Antlers -- within two points of the top.

There are a number of factors which contribute to the remarkable difficulty that the leading teams are having in the final stretch. One is the basic parity that exists in the league. A second is the intense pressure that is brought to bear on teams and players who are preparing for crucial matches. National Team fans have surely noted that Japan tends to play better overseas than they do at home (making it perhaps the only country in the world where this is the case). The tremendous pressure that the domestic press puts on players surely has something to do with this, and the same pressure exists in the J.League.

But in our view, the factor which outweighs all others is the atrocious officiating which J.League teams must put up with, week in and week out. Earlier this year, we provided a number of very harshly worded reports on the officiating errors which helped break the Antlers' early momentum, and accompanied these reports with video evidence. At the time, we had suspictions that this might even reflect deliberate favoritism shown to the more "media-attractive" team, Gamba Osaka. But no sooner had Gamba moved into first place than the officiating began to turn against them, as well. The general trend over the entire course of the year -- and it certainly held true this week -- has been one in which the team on the top of the table gets no breaks whatsoever from the referees, while weaker teams receive what might be called "a helping hand".

Just two days ago, the director of J.League referees, Les Mottram, appeared at a press conference in Tokyo and declared that "the quality of J.League referees has really improved." Errrhhhmmm . . . . No, Les, it hasnt. Perhaps the Rising Sun News has not been posting video clips recently, to rub the errors in your face, but that certainly does not mean that the quality has improved.

Considering how tight the race for the title is, this year, complaining about bad officiating can only sour what should be a mood of excitement and celebration. Therefore, the Rising Sun News wanted to make these comments now, to express our serious concern about the continuing problems that exist, and point out to readers who do not get to watch the J.League regularly one of the reasons why these odd "streaks" and "slumps" are not unusual in Japanese football. We sincerely hope that we can avoid mentioning the men in black during the final two weeks of the season, and that whoever does cross the finish line in first place can do so in a way which can at least partly dispel the bad taste that we have in out mouths, following a season of choking on our anger and disbelief.

Here are the results of Wednesday's contests:

Date	Home	.	Visitor	Venue
23 Nov		0-2		Kashima Stadium
23 Nov		1-0		Omiya Stadium
23 Nov		1-0		Chiba Stadium
23 Nov		0-0		Ajinomoto Stadium
23 Nov		0-2		Todoroki Stadium
23 Nov		0-1		Niigata "Big Swan" Std.
23 Nov		1-0		Nihondaira Stadium
23 Nov		1-1		Nagai Stadium
23 Nov		0-0		Hiroshima "Big Arch"

0 - 2

The Antlers do have one factor in their favour -- they play two of the league's weakest teams in their final two matches of the season, whereas Cerezo and Gamba both face reasonably competitive opponents. But the way they are going, that may not be enough to get them to the title in this, Toninho Cerezo's final year at the helm.

Date: 23 Nov, 2005		Location: Kashima Stadium
0	0 1H 0 0 2H 2	2
	Scoring	Magrao (48') Hideo Oshima (86')
Takuya Nozawa Fernando	Cautions
Lineups: Hitoshi Sogahata, Takeshi Aoki (Shinzo Koroki 65), Keiji Haneda, Daiki Iwamasa, Toru Araiba, Ricardinho, Fernando, Chikashi Masuda (Takuya Nozawa 54), Masaki Fukai, Masashi Motoyama, Alex Mineiro . Tatsuya Enomoto, Yuji Nakazawa, Naoki Matsuda, Ryuji Kawai, Hayuma Tanaka, Magrao (Koji Yamase 76), Yoshiharu Ueno, Dutra, Daisuke Oku, Tatsuhiko Kubo (Hideo Oshima 64), Rodrigo Gral (Daisuke Sakata 59) .

1 - 0

First of all, when Gamba were on top of their game, back in August and September the team was still viewed as something of an "upstart". People were excited to see them playing such wide-open football and winning matches, but it was not until the last two months or so that they have really come to be viewed as "the team to beat.". Once opponents did recognise that they would have to defeat Gamba, if they hoped to stay in the title race, they started to analyse the team's play more carefully and look for ways to beat them. One change that a lot of opponents have made, which has caused Gamba a lot of trouble, is to to play what might be described as a "two-layer" defence rather than a flat line. Gamba's attacking players are very adept at playing short quick passes to one another and breaking suddenly into space. If the defensive line hangs back, there is room for the attackers to continue exchanging short passes. If the line presses forward, the speedy attackers -- Masashi Oguro , Fernandinho and Araujo -- would dash behind them and create a good scoring opportunity.

But many teams have now discovered that they can contain the Gamba attack by having one or two players in the back line run hard at the ball, looking to either pry it loose or cut off the passing lane, and one or two others remain several steps deeper to pick up anyone running through into space. Though this makes it very difficult to catch the opposition offside, that seems a small price to pay in order to blunt the most dangerous aspect of the Gamba attack. Now that opponents are able to pressure their short passing game, these relatively small and unimposing attackers have a very difficult time getting off quality shots.. The result has been a severe drop in Gamba's goal tally over the past five or six matches. And for a team that was always a bit suspect on the defensive end, this has been a crucial blow.

But there are other issues to consider as well -- none more so than the behaviour of officials. As we said at the top, earlier this year Gamba were viewed as the "underdog" and a "crowd favourite", and along with that reputation went a lot of "benefit of the doubt" calls from referees. In European leagues, this tendency is not unheard of, but it is almost entirely a case of the home team benefitting and the visitors facing a hurdle, as refs exercise "discretion" rather than make calls which might infuriate the home crowd. In Japan, that sort of a home-pitch advantage does not exist, but there certainly is a tendency for certain teams to benefit from officiating calls. There do not seem to be any rules that we can identify. Two or three years ago Jubilo Iwata always seemed to get the "benefit of the doubt" even though they were at the top of the league. Years earlier, it was Verdy who were not only the top team, but also the team which could count on officials awarding them PKs any time they fell down in the area, or yellow-carding opponents for even the mildest of fouls. In recent years, however, the teams at the top of the table seem to provoke some sort of "resistance" from the refs, which has been particularly apparent this year. Call it what you like, but it is something that has been obvious enough to document on film (as we have done many times over the course of the season).

Earlier this year, Gamba could do no wrong in the eyes of the referees. Serious fouls were never carded. Blatant diving produced free kicks and PKs. But now that they have taken over the top spot, the refs seem to have turned against them. This week, Araujo was tripped up while chasing after a ball in the penalty area, and tumbled to the ground. The contact did not seem THAT blatant or deliberate, but there certainly was contact and it certainly was the reason for Araujo losing his balance. Three months ago, we have no doubt whatsoever that a penalty kick would have been awarded. This week, Mr. Joji Kashihara chose to show Araujo a yellow card for diving -- a booking which will cause him to miss next week's important contest against JEF United. How the winds of fate change . . .

Lest we overlook what actually transpired in this match, it would be wrong to suggest that Gamba's misfortune or the referee's whistle were the only important factors in this contest. Ardija have recovered from a prolonged slump of their own, and have been playing good football the past several weeks, and this week was no exception. Midfielder Chikara Fujimoto, and the strike team of Manabu Wakabayashi and Leandro Hiroki Aratani was equal to the chances that Gamba produced. After hanging tough for 87 minutes, Ardija finally wore down their opponent and got the key break they had been looking for all day. Fujimoto make a sudden dash out of midfield, collected a lead pass and took it all the way to the end line before spinning and whipping in a cross. Tatsunori Hisanaga, trailing the play from his spot in midfield, made a prodigious leap at the penalty spot and managed to loop his header over the keeper's fingertips to claim the only goal of the contest. The win assures Ardija of another year in the J1, while for Gamba, the questions being asked in the dressing room can only echo louder.

Date: 23 Nov, 2005		Location: Omiya Stadium
1	0 1H 0 0 2H 1	0
Tatsunori Hisanaga (87')	Scoring
Daisuke Tomita Toninho Koji Morita	Cautions	Araujo Toshihiro Matsushita
Lineups: Hiroki Aratani, Takuro Nishimura (Yasunari Hiraoka 89), Toninho, Seiichiro Okuno, Daisuke Tomita, Jun Marcus Davidson, Masato Saito, Tatsunori Hisanaga, Chikara Fujimoto, Leandro (Satoshi Yokoyama 62), Manabu Wakabayashi (Koji Morita 67). Yosuke Fujigaya, Sidiclei, Tsuneyasu Miyamoto, Satoru Yamaguchi, Mitsuteru Watanabe (Shigeru Morioka 78), Hideo Hashimoto, Yasuhito Endo, Takahiro Futagawa (Toshihiro Matsushita 38), Araujo, Fernandinho, Ryota Miki (Masanobu Matsunami 78), .

1 - 1

In this contest, however, Cerezo faced another team that has been on a winning streak of their own. Oita Trinita have run off an impressive record since Pericles Chamusca took over as head coach, and like Cerezo, they play a very positive, offence-oriented game which seeks every opportunity to play the ball into space and run after it. Cerezo were marginally more effective at this game in the first half, and 20 minutes into the contest they took the lead on what can only be referred to as a "stampede towards goal. Five Cerezo players all put their heads down and sprinted towards the goal mouth, with Ze Carlos carrying the ball. As he approached the box on the left side, he fed the ball in front of the galloping pink herd. Akinori Nishizawa got a toe to it, pushing it on towards the far post, and Fabinho thundered in to push it into the back of the net.

But Trinita had goal rushes of their own, and as the match wore on, they started to take a slight edge in the number and danger level of the attacks. Play continued to swing back and forth as both teams pushed themselves physically, but with ten minutes left to play, Trinita finally found the equaliser. Tulio slipped into the box on the right side and collected an inlet pass from Magno Alves, then chipped it in front of net. Masato Yamazaki outjumped the Cerezo defence and headed the ball into the top right corner.

Then, with time running down, Oita scored the winning goal . . . . or at least it looked like they did. Yuichi Nemoto fired a shot from the top of the penalty arc which hit the base of the left post, bounded back into play, and was stuffed home by Yoshihiro Uchimura. But well after the play ended, the linesman raised his flag and disallowed the goal, prompting expressions of disbelieve from many of the Trinita players. Was it really offsides? Well, you be the judge.

Though we are thrilled to see the Flaming Pinks draw level with Gamba, and if forced to choose, would love to see Cerezo take the title this year, our excitement has to be ptempered by the knowledge that this is what it comes down to in the J.League. Titles are not won and lost based on the skills and performances of the players, but rather, on the whims of a few poorly trained and questionably skilled match officials. From where we sit, this looks like a perfectly good goal. But more importantly, it was the sort of play where even the best of linesmen would have had a very difficult time tracking the positions of the strikers at the moment the ball was shot. There was no opportunity for anticipation. There is no doubt in our minds that the linesman did not see this play clearly enough to judge whether or not it was offsides. And the very first rule of officiating is -- if you didnt see it clearly, you dont make the call!!!!

So, Mr. Mottram, what was that you were saying about how much the J.League officiating has improved?

Date: 23 Nov, 2005		Location: Nagai Stadium
1	1 1H 0 0 2H 1	1
Fabinho (19')	Scoring	Masato Yamazaki (80')
Fabinho Ze Carlos	Cautions	Tulio Magno Alves Edmilson
Lineups: Motohiro Yoshida, Bruno Cuadros, Kota Fujimoto, Hiroshige Yanagimoto, Tomi Shimomura, Kiyokazu Kudo (Noriyuki Sakemoto 65), Ze Carlos (Teruaki Kurobe 85), Hiroaki Morishima (Hiroshi Miyahara 75), Akinori Nishizawa, Tatsuya Furuhashi . Shusaku Nishikawa, Takashi Miki, Tomoki Fukaya, Taikai Uemoto (Teppei Nishiyama 68), Keiji Yoshimura (Masato Yamazaki 77), Takayuki Yoshida, Edmilson, Tulio, Yuichi Nemoto, Magno Alves, Daiki Takamatsu (Yoshihiro Uchimura 88) .

0 - 0

The irony of this season's collapse is hard to avoid. This is the team that won both the Emperor's Cup and the Xerox Cup to start the year, and then claimed back-to-back wins over Real Madrid (by a stunning 3-0 score line) and Fiorentina. But Verdy somehow are not good enough to win matches in the J.League, and barring an absolute miracle, they will spend next season rebuilding in the J2.

Verdy are already mathematically eliminated from reaching safety. The very best they can hope for is that they somehow manage to win their final two matches while Kashiwa Reysol loses both of theirs. That would put Verdy into a promotion-relegation series agains the third-placed J2 team. This dim hope is kept alive partly by the fact that Verdy and Reysol play head-to-head, next week. But considering how they have performed down the stretch, this year, it does not look like Verdy will be able to escape their fate. And so, next year Japan will have a J2 team representing the country in the Asian Champions League.

Irony? I guess thats what you should expect from the most exciting football leage on the planet.

Date: 23 Nov, 2005		Location: Ajinomoto Stadium
0	0 1H 0 0 2H 0	0
	Scoring
Takuya Yamada Takahito Soma Daigo Kobayashi	Cautions	Keita Sugimoto
Lineups: Yoshinari Takagi, Masayuki Yanagisawa, Kenichi Uemura, Takuya Yamada, Takahito Soma, Kazuyuki Toda, Yoshiyuki Kobayashi (Akira Nurushi 84), Daigo Kobayashi, Jun Tamano (Tadamichi Machida 66), Gilberto "Jill" Goncalves (Takayuki Morimoto 84), Washington, . Seigo Narazaki, An Yong-Ha, Yutaka Akita, Yusuke Igawa, Keiji Yoshimura, Makoto Kakuda, Naoshi Nakamura, Keisuke Honda, Toshiya Fujita, Claiton (Keita Sugimoto 45) Sho Kamogawa (Yohei Toyoda 75), .

1 - 0

They certainly came close. But this just didnt seem to be a good day for teams that are in the title race. The Reds' chances were hurt badly when their teen striker, Sergio Escudero, lost his temper at what he viewed (perhaps correctly) as an overly harsh call awarding him a yellow card, and shouted at the official, earning himself a second . . . and a trip to the locker room.

With the man advantage working in their favour, JEF United made one last push for a goal, and young Koki Mizuno hit the targer in the final minute of regulation time to give JEF the victory. This moves them level with Urawa on points. Though this means that JEF are now mathematically in contention, as well, their much weaker goal difference means that they would have to finish a point AHEAD of Gamba in order to win the title, whereas the Reds can probably do it by gaining "just" four points on the two leaders -- an outside shot by any standard, but the way that the top teams have been playing, down the stretch . . . . who knows?

Date: 23 Nov, 2005		Location: Chiba "Fukuari" Std.
1	0 1H 0 1 2H 0	0
Koki Mizuno (89')	Scoring
Daisuke Saito Mario Haas Kozo Yuki Masataka Sakamoto	Cautions	Keita Suzuki Satoshi Horinouchi Alex Santos Tomoyuki Sakai Sergio Escudero Sergio Escudero
	Sent off	Sergio Escudero
Lineups: Ryo Kushino, Kozo Yuki, Koji Nakashima, Daisuke Saito, Masataka Sakamoto, Yuto Sato, Satoru Yamagishi, Koki Mizuno, Naotake Hanyu (Kohei Kudo 70), Seiichiro Maki, Mario Haas (Takenori Hayashi 84) . Ryota Tsuzuki, Keisuke Tsuboi, Marcus Tulio Tanaka, Satoshi Horinouchi, Nobuhisa Yamada, Keita Suzuki, Tomoyuki Sakai, Alessandro Santos (Hajime Hosogai 61), Robson Ponte, Masayuki Okano (Sergio Escudero 64), Tomislav Maric .

1 - 0

There is only one accurate way to sum up this match: Shimizu S-Pulse did their utmost, but try as they might, they simply could not manage to drop any points to Vissel Kobe. S-Pulse claimed a last-minute victory . . . on an injury-time PK no less . . . to punish the bottom-of-the-table club further, and move a step closer to safety. If S-Pulse can pick up just one more point from their final two matches, they will be safe from even the risk of a promotion-relegation playoff.

Date: 23 Nov, 2005		Location: Nihondaira Stadium
1	0 1H 0 0 2H 1	0
Marquinhos (89')	Scoring
	Cautions	Shusuke Tsubouchi Ivo Ulich Seiji Honda
Lineups: Yohei Nishibe, Daisuke Ichikawa, Naoaki Aoyama, Toshihide Saito, Takahiro Yamanishi, Yoshikiyo Kuboyama (Choi Dae-Uk 64), Takuma Edamura, Teruyoshi Ito, Akihiro Hyodo (Masaaki Sawanobori 89), Marquinhos (Yasumasa Nishino 89), Cho Jae-Jin . Seiji Honda, Ryuhei Niwa (Park Kang-Jo 53), Seiji Kaneko, Kunie Kitamoto, Shusuke Tsubouchi, Ivo Ulich, Naoya Saeki, Atsuhiro Miura, Hiromi Kojima (Akihiro Endo 58), Keisuke Kurihara (Mitsutoshi Watada 63), Ryuji Bando .

0 - 0

Unfortunately for Kashiwa, one point merely puts off the inevitable. One point either way (either gained by S-Pulse or lost by Reysol) will guarantee them of 16th place, and a spot in the promotion-relegation series against the J2's third-placed team. Though they will probably put in the effort next week, against Verdy (just to ensure that they dont slip down into 17th spot), we suspect that they will then turn their sights on whoever they meet in the promotion-relegation clash.

Date: 23 Nov, 2005		Location: Hiroshima "Big Arch"
0	0 1H 0 0 2H 0	0
	Scoring
Issei Takayanagi Shunsuke Maeda	Cautions	Mitsuru Nagata Yukio Tsuchiya Tomonori Hirayama
Lineups: Akihiro Sato, Yuichi Komano, Shogo Nishikawa, Norio Omura, Kota Hattori, Ri Han-Jae, Shinichiro Kuwata, Kazuyuki Morisaki, Issei Takayanagi (Tastsuro Kimura 81), Susumu Oki, (Shusuke Maeda 77), Hayato Sato . Shinya Kato, Mitsuru Nagata, Yasuhiro Hato, Yukio Tsuchiya, Tadatoshi Masuda (Tatsuya Yazawa 75), Yuzo Kobayashi, Hidekazu Otani, Masataka Ono, Tomonori Hirayama, Yuji Unozawa (Tatsuya Suzuki 79), Kisho Yano .

0 - 2

Report may be posted later, time permitting

Date: 23 Nov, 2005		Location: Todoriki Stadium
0	0 1H 1 0 2H 1	2
	Scoring	Ryoichi Maeda (24') Robert Cullen (88')
Kengo Nakamura Marcus de Morais	Cautions	Hideto Suzuki Sho Naruoka Hiroshi Nanami
Lineups: Takashi Aizawa, Yoshinobu Minowa, Shuhei Terada, Hiroki Ito, Yasuhiro Nagahashi (Masaru Kurotsu 80), Kengo Nakamura, Tomoaki Kuno (Hiroyuki Yaguchi 56), Augusto de Souza, Marcus de Morais, Kazuki Ganaha, Juninho . Yoshikatsu Kawaguchi, Hideto Suzuki (Hiroshi Nanami 45), Kim Jin-Kyu, Takayuki Chano, Yoshiaki Ota, Takashi Fukunishi, Toshihiro Hattori, Shinji Murai, Sho Naruoka (Keisuke Funatani 69), Ryoichi Maeda (Robert Cullen 80), Masashi Nakayama .

0 - 1

Report may be posted later, time permitting

Date: 23 Nov, 2005		Location: Niigata "Big Swan Std.
0	0 1H 0 0 2H 1	1
	Scoring	Sasa Salcedo (77')
Anderson Lima	Cautions
Lineups: Koichi Kidera, Susumu Umeyama (Yusaku Ueno 81), Keiji Kaimoto, Shigenori Hagimura, Naoya Kikuchi, Isao Honma (Daisuke Aono 81), Hiroyoshi Kuwahara (Daisuke Fujii 83), Yohito Terakawa, Anderson Lima, Edmilson, Fabinho . Yoichi Doi, Ryuji Fujiyama, Jean Carlo Witte, Teruaki Moniwa, Jo Kanazawa, Yohei Kajiyama, Yasuyuki Konno, Norio Suzuki (Sasa Salcedo 51), Ryoichi Kurisawa (Mitsuhiro Toda 76), Yoshiro Abe, Lucas Severino .

J2 Roundup:

Vegalta Sendai are a large, well-supported club from a relatively large city. They have been in the J1 before, and know what it takes to get there, so experience is certainly on their side. They not only have a large payroll and a relatively strong lineup, but they had plenty of money to splash out at midseason to bolster their chances. Yet Vegalta have underperformed all year long -- and indeed, underperforming seems to be this team's habit. Until September they were mired back in the middle of the table, and only as the stretch run began did they rise into contention. Nevertheless, the players they picked up to help them in the stretch run have made them quite competitive, and as they head down the final stretch, they have a one-point lead. They have to be viewed as the favourites.

In the other corner are a team with "underdog" written all over them. Ventforet Kofu are a small team from a small town with small ambitions and generally small players (with the lone exception of their ace striker, Bare). The team barely has the money to pay the players they already have, forget about signing new ones for the stretch run. Furthermore, if they did gain promotion, they would find it very difficult to make the personnel additions needed to compete effectively in the J1. Their J1 experience would be merely a "season in the sun", followed by immediate relegation. Yet the grit and determination that they have demonstrated from start to finish of this long, 44-game season is inspiring to anyone who enjoys rooting for an underdog. Somehow, against the odds, they have managed to remain within striking distance right to the end, and now they need only the willpower and good fortune to take that final step.

This week, the two teams played very different matches -- as widely disparate as the teams themselves. Vegalta were at home, in front of an enormous crowd packing Sendai Stadium to the rafters, against lowly Mito Hollyhock. Not surprisingly, they quickly took the lead . . . then scored again . . . and added one more to close out an easy victory. Meanwhile, in the cavernous space of the Sapporo Dome, a huge and hostile crowd of 17,000 Consadole Sapporo fans greeted tiny Ventforet, who had to look carefully to spot a cluster of about 30 or 40 supporters who managed to make the trip with their team. Ventforet fought hard, but Bare has been battling muscle spasms in his back, and the team's top gun was misfiring. As the clock moved into the final minute of regulation time, Ventforet were trailing 2-1. Even a draw would put them three points adrift of Vegalta, and virtually extinguish hope.

Adversity? What on earth are you talking about? As the numbers on the clock rolled over to 90:00, Tomoya Ishihara raced after a loose ball in the Consadole half, fed a pass to Taro Hasegawa breaking in on the right wing, and Hasegawa fired a screaming shot into the roof of the net.

Racing after his own shot, he pulled the ball from the net and ignored the urge to celebrate, racing back to the center circle to put the ball into play. Consadole kicked off, but now the Ventforet players sensed their moment of destiny, and swarmed after the ball like a cloud of angry yellowjackets. Captain Ken Fujita somehow managed to come up with it, and dashed down the sideline once more. Before any defenders could close in, he fired a low cross into the box, and Daisuke Sudo flung himself headlong, butting the ball past the keeper and giving Ventforet a 3-2 lead!

But the show was not yet over. Once again Consadole put the ball into play, and once again the Ventforet players swarmed after it. This time, however, the Consadole keeper collected the long lead pass at the edge of his area before Sudo could catch up to it, and hurried to put it back into play. But he was undone by his own haste, sending his punt right into the back of one of his own defenders. Sudo pounced on the loose ball, and . . . with the 40 Ventforet supporters leaping about for joy like bullfrogs on amphetamines . . . tucked it into the empty goal mouth.

Remarkably, this victory for Ventforet sets up a potential "doomsday scenario" for both teams. Ventforet's last two matches are against second-place Avispa Fukuoka, followed by first-placed Kyoto Purple Sanga (both of whom have already clinched promotion). Vegalta, on the other hand, plays this weekend against first-place Kyoto Purple Sanga, and closes out the season against second-place Avispa Fukuoka (both of whom have already clinched promotion).

A Hollywood scriptwriter couldnt have written a climax better than this one. So while all eyes may be fixed on the J1 title chase, spare a thought this week for the two second-division clubs, as they seek to overcome the odds and win their way through to the top-flight division.

Rumours and Rumblings

A Fateful Fortnight for Football's Future

In addition to the crucial deciding matches in the J1 title race, matches played over the next fortnight will also decide which teams face off in this year's J1/J2 promotion-relegation series, which team wins the JFL championship, whether or not the J2 will expand next season, and which of eight regional contenders will join the JFL in 2006. And to top it all off, the busy period will conclude, on December 9, with the draw to decide pool groups for the 2006 World Cup. It is almost too much to keep track of, without an official programme. Therefore, The Rising Sun News would like to take this opportunity to provide a summary of all the football-related events taking place over the next fortnight.

The most high-profile matches, naturally, are the ones that will determine this year's J.League champion. As the league table further up this page shows, there are five teams still numerically in the chase for the title, with two games to go. But realistically speaking, only three of them are really prime contenders -- Gamba Osaka, Cerezo Osaka and Kashima Antlers. Here is the situation with two games remaining:

1		57 pts	(17 - 6 - 9)	+23
2		57 pts	(16 - 9 - 7)	+8
3		55 pts	(15 - 10 - 7)	+18
4		53 pts	(15 - 8 - 9)	+23
5		53 pts	(14 - 11 - 7)	+12

As you can see, the odds are stacked heavily against a late run by either the Reds or JEF. They would not only need to win both of their own remaining contests, but they would also need to see both Gamba and Cerezo to fail to win both of their remaining matches, while the Antlers would have to lose at least once (in JEF's case, the inferior goal difference means that even two draws by either Gamba or Cerezo would probably exclude them). While odder things have happened in the J.League, for the time being we are going to confine our consideration to the top three contenders.

Team	Nov 26 Opponent	Rank	Dec 3 Opponent	Rank
	JEF United (Home)	5th	Kawasaki Frontale (Away)	6th
	Yokohama Marinos (Away)	8th	FC Tokyo (Home)	9th
	Shimizu S-Pulse (Away)	15th	Kashiwa Reysol (Home)	16th

Clearly, the team with the most difficult schedule over the final two matches is the current leader, Gamba Osaka. JEF United are still at least theoretically in contention, and even if their remaining hopes are extinguished this Saturday, they will want to go down fighting. Frontale could also cause Gamba problems, since they have a very speedy front line of their own, and will not mind playing "Gamba Osaka's game" of fast-paced attacking. Since they are still in first place (level on points but with an insurmountable lead in goal difference), this is clearly Gamba's title to win or lose. Though they have struggled over the past five weeks, and have no past experience of claiming a title, Gamba does have a large number of experienced veterans who can be counted on to respond when their backs are to the wall. Even so, the tough schedule will make things very difficult for them. If Gamba fails to win both of their remaining matches, we think the odds are against them taking home the trophy.

Cerezo Osaka is in the middle in more ways than one. Not only are they in second place, but their opposition in the final two matches is midway between Gamba's opposition and Kashima's, in terms of difficulty. The away match at Nissan Stadium in Yokohama is obviously the biggest hurdle. The Marinos have not done a very good job, as last year's champion, of defending their league title. However, their perfomance has improved in recent matches, and the return of key players such as Tatsuhiko Kubo and Koji Yamase from injury has given them a boost. With the momentum they have built up, down the stretch, we think that a victory on Saturday (combined with a slip by Gamba) will fire the team up, and the wave of entusiasm will almost certainly carry them to the title. But if they fail to defeat the Marinos, the momentum will be broken, and the final match against FC Tokyo could turn out to be very tricky, as well.

Kashima Antlers have by far the easiest run to the finish line, facing two of the weakest opponents in the league. Some commentators have recently been making the dubious suggestion that, since S-Pulse and Reysol still have something to fight for (both still face relegation danger), they will actually be more difficult opponents than teams like the Marinos or Frontale. In a word . . . . poppycock! There is no question that if you offered either Gamba or Cerezo the chance to swap opponents with the Antlers, they would leap at the opportunity like a hungry Nikko macaque at a tourist's picnic lunch. The problem the Antlers face has little to do with their opposition (though it is true that S-Pulse are the only J.League team with a historical winning record against Kashima), and much to do with the team's depleted condition. The Antlers have not only lost their midfield general, Mitsuo Ogasawara, but also their decisiveness in the final third of the pitch. Yet it would be foolish to count them out just yet. The Antlers have faced diversity many times in the past, and still managed to come through in the end. This year, with two points to make up and just two matches in which to do it, we think it will end up as a case of "too little, too late". But if Gamba and/or Cerezo wants to claim the title, they had better win both of their remaining matches. As battered and disspirited as the Antlers may appear, it would be foolish to count on them dropping any more points to the likes of Shimizu or Kashiwa.

Prediction: Whichever team wins both of their remaining matches will be the league champion. The way things have been going in recent weeks, we think Cerezo is the most likely candidate to do so, but this is a race that is impossible to handicap. Regardless of what happens, the fans are sure to be the biggest winners

The J1 relegation race this season is not nearly as suspenseful as the battle at the top of the table. Vissel Kobe have looked like relegation bait all year long, and they wrapped up this dubious honor with plenty of time to spare. Tokyo Verdy have also struggled all year long, and despite occasional flashes of competence (who can forget their 3-0 victory over a full-strength Real Madrid), they are also in a spot which leaves little to chance. A single point dropped in their final two matches, against Reysol and Oita Trinita, will put the final nail in their coffin.

Reysol, meanwhile, have eliminated most of the suspense surrounding their fate, as well. Only a total catastrophe (including a loss to Tokyo Verdy at Kashiwa Stadium, this Saturday) could consign them to automatic relegation, but on the other hand, it would take a near miracle (two solid wins combined with two losses by Shimizu S-Pulse) for them to climb out of the promotion-relegation spot. We expect the picture to be even clearer after Saturday's head-to-head between Reysol and Verdy. At the moment, it seems highly probably that Verdy will finish 17th (automatic relegation) and Reysol 16th (putting them in the promotion-relegation series).

The two automatic promotion berths for next season have already been secured, by Kyoto Purple Sanga and Avispa Fukuoka. Both teams have been in the J1 before, and their steady performances over the full 44-match marathon allowed them to lock up promotion berths with relative ease. Nevertheless, there is still plenty of excitement in the second division, due to the neck-and-neck race to claim a spot in the promotion-relegation series. With two matches remaining, here is the situation for the top teams:

1		94 pts	(29 - 7 - 6)	+49
2		74 pts	(20 - 14 - 8)	+24
3		67 pts	(19 - 10 - 13)	+20
4		66 pts	(18 - 12 - 12)	+18

What makes the race for third place so exciting is the fact that all four of the top teams will be involved in deciding who makes it to the promotion-relegation series. By an odd quirk of fate, both Vegalta and Ventforet play their last two matches against Kyoto Purple Sanga and Avispa Fukuoka:

Team	Nov 26 Opponent	Rank	Dec 3 Opponent	Rank
	Kyoto Purple Sanga (Home)	1st	Avispa Fukuoka (Away)	2nd
	Avispa Fukuoka (Home)	2nd	Kyoto Purple Sanga (Away)	1st

Considering the strength of their two opponents, it seems quite likely that if either team can claim any points AT ALL from the final two matches, they will probably take the honors. Though Vegalta has a one point advantage going into the final fortnight, thise lead is slim enough that whoever emerges with the better record in the final two contests will almost surely be the champion. Since Vegalta have been to the J1 before, one might assume that they have the slight edge. However, while both teams have been handled easily by Kyoto, Ventforet actually has an UNBEATEN record against Avispa this season (two wins and a draw, compared with Vegalta's two losses and a draw). To help their cause further, Kofu play Avispa at home, whereas Vegalta must play them away. It is certainly possible that the Purple Sanga will be resting on their laurels in the final two matches, but since they have already had a month to celebrate and think about next season, we think that is unlikely. We strongly suspect that Kyoto will win both of their final two contests. That means that the two teams' respective performances against Avispa hold the key. Since Avispa only clinched promotion on Wednesday, they may still be in "celebration mode" for their final two matches, and could be ripe for an upset.

As in the case of the J1 race, this is a very difficult contest to handicap. The "smart money" will probably be on Vegalta, considering their past history and the higher quality of their roster. The only problem is that in desperate situations like this one (facing two, clearly superior opponents and needing to snatch just one upset win in order to claim the prize), the most important qualities are usually not skill and experience, but guts, determination and the sort of never-say-die attitude that Ventforet displayed in their injury-time comeback last week, against Sapporo. Once again, this race is sure to go down to the wire, with football fans being the biggest winners.

As we discussed a few weeks ago, the J.League has given a strong indication that they will approve the promotion of Ehime FC to the J2, provided they finish in either first or second place in the JFL this season. Readers should be aware that this is not an ironclad promise. The League originally turned down the Tangerines' petition for a spot in the J.League, on technical grounds, but following a heavy lobbying effort led by the prefectural governor himself, the League promised that if Ehime finish in the JFL's top two, this season, they will "reconsider the team's application for promotion". While this is not a clear guarantee, Ehime FC's late lobbying effort included a petition, with the signatures of 217,780 residents of the prefecture! (As one local blogger put it, "I didnt think there were that many people in all of Shikoku!"). It would be extremely difficult for the League to take a hard line against that sort of grassroots support, so it would seem that the only hurdle remaining is for Ehime to claim first or second place. Here are the standings after last weekend's matches:

1	YKK AP	60 pts	(19 - 3 - 6)	+34
2	Ehime FC	60 pts	(19 - 3 - 6)	+24
3	Alo's Hokuriku	55 pts	(17 - 4 - 7)	+24

As you can see, the top two teams, YKK AP and Ehime, have identical records, though YKK have a big advantage on goal difference. No doubt, Ehime would like to claim the JFL title, just to erase any doubts about whether or not they deserve promotion. But theoretically, all they really need is two more points from the final two matches to be assured of second place. Here are the fixtures for the final two weeks:

Team	Nov 26 Opponent	Rank	Dec 3 Opponent	Rank
YKK AP	Honda Lock (Away)	15th	Mitsubishi Mizushima (Home)	16th
Ehime FC	Honda FC (Away)	5th	Denso (Home)	14th
Alo's Hokuriku	Musashino FC (Away)	9th	Honda Lock (Home)	15th

As you can see, Ehime will need a lot of luck to claim the JFL title. YKK AP plays its final two matches against two of the weakest teams in the league (Mizushima have a preposterous record of two wins, two draws and 24 losses), and is unlikely to drop a point. Ehime, on the other hand, face a difficult test this weekend, away to Honda FC, before finishing the season against another weakling, Denso. But it certainly seems within reason to assume that they will be able to pick up the points they need to remain ahead of Alo's Hokuriku and finish in second place. We believe that the football fans of Ehime prefecture will be able to celebrate the birth of a new J.League team at their home match in Matsuyama, on December 3.

Nationwide Regional League Championship Tournament

The tournament kicks off tomorrow (Friday November 25), and we will provide updates on the scores and progress of the tournament over the next two weekends. Here are the fixtures for this weekend's matches, which comprise the first (pool) round. The letters in parentheses indicate which pool the team is in (pools A, B, C and D):