Before we get started with the J1 previews, though, some readers have asked for our opinion on the upcoming Xerox Cup contest. Naturally, all the "smart" money will be on last year's league champions, Kashima, who shouldnt have much trouble disposing of a recently relegated J2 club, right?

Well, not so fast. The odds are certainly stacked heavily in the Antlers' favour, at least on paper. But with both Atsuto Uchida and Daiki Iwamasa doubtful due to nigglng injuries and fatigue after their long and depressing trip to China, there definitely will be some space in the back line which Sanfrecce might be able to exploit. If past history is any guide, the Xerox Cup usually produces a lot of dazzle and not much defensive bite, since it is only an exhibition contest and both league and players want to give fans a good show, rather than a completely "serious" clash. Sanfrecce managed to hang on to almost all of their key players (with the notable exception of Yuichi Komano), and they are not likely to play like your run-of-the-mill J2 club, especially in a high-profile match like this one. A Sanfrecce victory in regulation time would indeed be an upset, but we would not be surprised to see this contest go to penalty kicks

Now that we have that out of the way, what lies in store for J.League fans in 2008? Will the Thundering Herd of Ibaraki gallop to another title, or will the Regal Reds finally get the J1 coronation that they missed out on last season. And what about Gamba Osaka, who surely are good enough to be in the mix this season?

Well, as regular readers are aware the Rising Sun News has made some rather "unconventional" predictions in recent years. Certainly, this does sometimes lead to projections that look a bit silly, in retrospect (such as last-season's choice of FC Tokyo as a dark horse candidate for the league title). But other times our selections have been quite prescient (we did forecast that Kashima were more likely to claim the title in 2007 than the Urawa Reds). Essentially the philosophy that we have adopted for picking a winner is based on one consistently reliable and proven fact of J.League history: the team that "everyone" expects to win invariably fails to do so.

This year, the mainstream sportswriters are less united in their opinions than they have been in the past. Generally speaking, there are two schools of thought -- one says that the Reds are simply too strong to be overcome this season, and that they will be particularly fired up after losing out on the last week of the season, in 2007. The other says that for all the Reds' wealth of talent, they will struggle to find a good chemistry and despite fighting down to the wire, they will be pipped at the post once again by either the Antlers or Gamba.

Well, the disparity of opinion this year may mean that one of these two (or rather, three) scenarios does indeed take place. Rather than try to string you along with a lot of suspense and uncertainty, the Rising Sun News wants to get the big question mark out of the way as quickly as possible, and make our title prediction for 2008.

Are you ready?

This season, one team is going to roar out of the gate and blow dust and smoke over every other team in the league. Although two or three rivals may manage to cling to their heels, and perhaps close the gap as the season wanes to create a close finish, that team will remain in front almost from post to post, and claim the League title with at least a week to spare. Naturally, the team we are talking about is . . .

Yes. Seriously.

Here are our projections, team by team:

Looking carefully at the moves that the Mighty Swans have made in recent years, you get the clear message that they want to build the team from the ground floor up, using only local materials. This is a laudable objective from the long-term perspective. And Albirex does have an excellent system in place to funnel quality players towards the top team. Their association with Japan Soccer College and their "farm team" -- Albirex Singapore -- offer players a chance to get high-level experience even when they are very young. This is producing a lot of young talent, such as recent U-20 stars Atom Tanaka and Kazuhisa Kawahara.

But as fans of Sanfrecce Hiroshima will no doubt attest, a top quality youth program alone is not enough to produce a championship team (well . . . unless you are aiming to win J2 championships). In Albirex's case, the failure to do more work in the offseason to pursue and sign established players is hard to understand. At least Sanfrecce can blame it on weak finances. Albirex -- which still can compete with Urawa Reds in terms of total attendances for a season -- simply hasnt used its cash flow to improve the roster. On the contrary, during the break they LOST key players to potential rivals. The sale of Edmislon to Urawa Reds was the most serious blow, but we think Albirex made a mistake in allowing Masataka Sakamoto to go back to JEF United. Jun Marques Davidson and Masaki Fukai did not make as a big a contribution to the team last year, but we see no indication that the players brought in to replace them are any better.

As we observed last year, Jun Suzuki is a very competent coach, but he is not the sort of man who can coax heroic efforts from a mediocre team. At the end of the day, this means that Albirex can home to be reasonably "successful", in the sense of winning more matches than they lose. But their odds of pickjing up any silverware are long indeed. Most likely they will struggle just to match last year's sixth-place finish.

2007 Finish: 6th Place
2008 Forecast: 8th-10th Place

After their come-from-behind championship run last season, followed by a successful Emperor's Cup campaign which leaves the team still riding a 13-match winning streak, people are certainly not dismissing the Antlers' prospects this season as many did last year. It appears that the "conventional wisdom" will once again tip the Reds as the most likely team to raise the league trophy at the end of 2008, but at least the mainstream press is including Kashima among the top candidates this year

The question is, how much of last year's success can be attributed solely to the Reds' late collapse, and how much credit do the Antlers deserve for their own performance. Some would say that a 13-match winning streak is a more-than-adequate answer to that question. However, the doubters do have a legitimate point. The Reds were exhausted by last season's schedule. By the end of the season they often looked like they could barely stand up, much less play football. This season Kashima must also contest the Asian Champions League, whereas the Reds have a bye through the group stage. Since Kashima has a bit less depth than Urawa, there is a good reason to wonder whether they too will run out of gas before they reach the finish line, in early December.

A lot will depend on how seriously the Antlers take the ACL. Last time they participated -- in the first year of the ACL's existence -- Kashima sent a retalively understrength squad and were knocked out in the group round. But the calculus has changed quite a bit since then. The Reds' high-profile title in 2007 has given the ACL a great deal more credibility in the eyes of teams and fans alike. The prize money is now many times what it was back in 2003, and though still not exactly a "bonanza", the revenue flow for a team that reaches the final four is now big enough to make it work the effort.

If the Antlers do put a 100% effort into the ACL, this year, they may indeed find their energy reserves running low by the end of the season. Several of the team's key players -- Go Oiwa, Toru Araiba, Mitsuo Ogasawara, Masashi Motoyama and Marquinhos -- are getting to the age where they dont bounce back as quickly from a 12-hour plane trip and a hard-fought Wednesday evening ACL clash. However, there are a number of reasons to think that Kashima may be able to handle the burden better than Urawa did, last year.

Most importantly, Kashima has one of the finest coaches in the J.League, in Oswaldo Oliveira. The 57-year-old Brazilian is likely to be a bit more judicious in his use of personnel than Holger Osieck was last year at Urawa. Furthermore, though some of Kashima's starters are advancing in age, the team has a lot of very competent, young and energetic squad players who shold be able to take over a good share of the burden when it becomes necessary to give the top stars some rest. Kasshima's off-season signings -- particularly Masahiko Inoha, Seiji Kaneko and Shuto "Shoot" Suzuki -- seem to be carefully selected in order to cover for Oiwa and Araiba, who are the oldest players on the team. Finally, the Antlers have left one foreigner slot open in what looks like a calculated move. If there are signs that the team needs a bit of extra muscle and endurance at a particular spot, it should be pretty easy for a man like Oliveira to use his wealth of contacts back in Brazil to sign a quality player to fill the gap.

After considering all of the factors, we have reached exactly the same conclusion we made last year: The Antlers' prospects for a title depend almost entirely on how many goals they get from their strikers. The team has an embarassment of riches in the back line and a midfield that OUGHT to be providing the core of the Japan national team right now (though we have no doubt that coach Oliveira is chuckling up his sleeve, and thanking the JFA for not adding to the demands on key men like Ogasawara, Motoyama and Nozawa). The only thing that has held the team back, in recent years, was its inability to create goals.

With Yuzo Tashiro and Shinzo Koroki emerging last season as international-class players, Kashima cruised down the stretch and claimed two titles. If these two, supported by the aging but still clever and useful Marquinhos, can find the net on a regular basis, the Antlers will once again be a top candidate for the J.League title. However, we do think that Kashma may face the same dilemma between domestic success and ACL success that other teams have faced in the past. We do not think Kashima has the depth to win both, this season. So by September, coach Oliveira and his brain trust may find themselves forcing to choose which of these prizes to pursue most vigorously.

2006 Finish: 1st Place
2007 Forecast: 2nd-3rd Place

The best news is probably the fact that former Montedio boss Yasuhiro Higuchi is taking over as head coach this year. Higuchi is not exactly a coaching legend, but his results with Montedio over the past two seasons suggest that he knows how to steer a small team with a limited budget through the difficult challenges of a J.League season.

Another plus this season will be the fact that Omiya finally has its own permanent home ground, now that renovation work to Omiya Park Stadium has been completed. In a desperate effort to squeeze every last yen out of their corporate sponsors, Ardija have sold the naming rights to Omiya Stadium, which means that visiting fans can snicker derisively as they file into "NACK Five Stadium". Dont worry though; the Rising Sun News sees no reason to rub it in. We will be referring to the venue by its historical name -- Omiya Park Stadium . After all, any venue where Maradona played as a young, drug-free superstar deserves to be shown a bit more historical respect; and"NACK Five" just doesnt do the trick.

The Squirrels didnt lose any significant players over the winter break. The biggest loss was probably the move of strikre Manabu Wakabayashi to Ehime, and though newcomer Pedro Junior may not be a household name in Brazil, anyone who got regular playing time at Gremio and Cruzeiro cant be any worse than the strikers Omiya put out last season. On the other hand, Pedro will probably turn out to be the most important player that the team signed in the off-season... and that isnt really saying much. Former Yokohama FC stalward Tomoya Uchida might see some first-tema action, and former Gamba youngster Daiki Niwa might manage to break into an otherwise undistinguised defensive line. At the end of the day, this Ardija squad isnt much different from last season, and that cant be good news.

If coach Higuchi can find ways to get the most out of a highly experienced but mediocre lineup, we think the Squirrels may manage to hoard enough points away to see them through another winter. However, this is a very shallow team, which is being carried along by just two or three key players. The loss of either Leandro or Daigo Kobayashi for any length of time could be enough to send this team back to the second division.

2006 Finish: 15th Place
2007 Forecast: 15th-17th Place

Considering how much support the team received in its early years in the J.League, it was a shock to see how sloppy and inconsiderate management became once Okada left and Consadole dropped back into the J2. Therefore, in our eyes, the most important improvement has been the recovery in attendances and locap pride. Last year Consadole averaged over 12,000 fan for the first time since the Okada era, and the advance to J1 should provide a further boost to those numbers. Consadole has made more of an effort, in recent seasons, to show respect to the local fans, and to reflect Hokkaido pride rather than trying to pretend that the interests of the local region were immaterial. Many of the players who form the "core" of the team are Hokkaido natives, such as Tomohiko Ikeuchi, Seiya Fujita, Yushi Soda, Kengo Ishii and Takahito Chiba. Despite a modest budget, Consadole also did a pretty good job of bolstering the team over the winter. The signing of Shusuke Tsubouchi from Vissel Kobe and Sanfrecce's Mitsuyuki Yoshihiro should bolster a defence which was the team's main weakness last season, as does the acquisition of defensive midfielder Jun Marcus Davidson.

However, the team's success or failure this season is going to rest mainly on the shoulders of scoring ace Davi Jose Silva do Nascimento. Davi scored 19 goals for Sapporo in 39 appearances last year, and his numbers didnt really pick up until later in the season, when he developed a better familiarity with the team. Consadole has a long history of riding on the offensive capabilities of a key striker up front -- first Panamanian legend Jorge Dely Valdes, then Emerson, Will, and more recently "Hulk" de Souza. If Davi and his compatriot Nonato (a former K.League scoring leader) can produce goals for this team, Consadole has the internal chemistry and consistency to make this visit to the top-flight an extended one. However, survival is probably about all they can hope for, this season.

2007 Result:1st Place (J2)

2008 Forecast: 14th-16th Place

Frontale was the biggest surprise package of 2006, finishing in second place after being tipped by most J.League watchers to finish mid-table. As is usually the case, football pundits did their best to make up for overlooking them by adopting wildly optimistic forecasts last season. Their fifth-place finish was somewhat disappointing, by comparison, but certainly not weak enough to suggest that the second-place finish in 2006 was just a fluke. As a result, it looks like most of the major pundits have once again adopted the assumption that the Blue Dolphins of the Kanagawa are merely a sideshow, and that they neednt be considered seriously as a candidate for the league title. A cup trophy, maybe. But surely not the league.

Well, that may turn out to be an accurate assumption. However, when we look at the Frontale roster, somehow the image that pops into our mind is that of a Cigarette Smoking Man preparing to open the door of a room where his partner just committed suicide by turning on the gas. One spark, and the whole place is going to get very "lively".

Last season it seemed like Frontale couldnt turn around without stubbing their toes or knocking something over. Everything that could possibly go wrong did go wrong. . . . and then some. Whether it was the injuriies to key personnel, the utterly baffling Kazuki Ganaha "doping" incident, or simply the fact that they always seemed to face teams that were having a run of form, Kawasaki just didnt get any breaks. And then they also had to deal with the long-distance trips to ACL venues on the other side of the globe. Yet Frontale still managed to finish in fifth place. And that despite a horrendous run in the middle of the season -- right at the peak of their ACL campaign -- when they managed only three domestic wins in 13 matches.

As opposing coach sit down and start analyzing the team that they are likely to face when they visit Todoroki Stadium this season, they are likely to feel a bit like the Light Brigade, riding into the Valley of Death. Cannons to the right of them. Cannons to the left of them. Cannons in front of them . . .

Just consider:

Kazuki Ganaha has just spent an entire year -- one of the most productive of his career -- sitting in enforced immobility due to the J.League's bizarre decision to enforce a doping ban despite the fact that even FIFA's rules committee itself said Ganaha should not be held responsible for the incident. For those who have forgotten, Ganaha was a frequent NT choice of Ivica Osim, prior to that incident, and prior to last season he had scored an average of 15 goals in each of his previous four years. Now he is rested, redeemed, and ready to reap some righteous revenge. you can almost smell the gas leak.

Then you have Chong Tese -- the most awesomely impressive figure in the recent East Asian Championships as he single-handedly carried North Korea to draws against Japan and Korea. Tese was a handful for opposing defenders last year, when he was still pretty raw, inexperienced, and often out of step with his teammates. This season, he has not only a great deal more experience and confidence, he also has more support up front than ever before. You can almost hear the fuse hissing.

Then you have Givanildo "Hulk" de Souza. After arriving in Kawasaki as a raw, unpolished brute in 2005, he was farmed out to a couple J2 clubs in 2006 and 2007 to give him the experience and technical polish he needed in order to make effective use of his impressive physical attributes. Put it this way -- the kids back in Brazil didnt give him the nickname "Hulk" because he had a green complexion. After a two-year apprenticeship he finally gets his chance to come back to the top-flight and prove what he is capable of doing on a more public stage. Do you hear the timer ticking down?

And lest we forget, there is also Juninho. Funny that the Brazilian veteran -- a lightning-fast dribbler and pinpoint marksman who has quietly piled up 123 goals in his past five seasons with Kawasaki -- almost seems like an afterthought when you analyze the Frontale attack. Did someone just light a match?

If anyone missed it, Frontale also beefed up their attacking midfield with the signing of occasional NT midfielder Satoru Yamaguchi, to join NT regular Kengo Nakamura and U-23 prospect Hiroyuki Taniguchi. Yamaguchi may not be one of our favourite inclusions on the full national team, but that isnt because he is totally lacking in ability. Besides, on this team all he has to do is get the ball to one of the strikers. They can do the rest.

Frontale's only real potential weakness is in the defence. The team allowed 48 goals last year -- more than any of the other top-half teams. However, that doesnt imply a lack of capability. Eiji Kawashima is a top prospect to take over from Yoshikatsu Kawaguchi as the future starting NT goalkeeper, while the back line is tall and beefy -- averaging 185cm.

Finally, and perhaps most importantly, Frontale is the only one of the J.League's top contenders that will not have to devote any time to the ACL, this season. Whereas the Antlers, Reds and Gamba all have to perform a balancing act, and try to use players judiciously to avoid fatigue later in the season, Frontale has only one thing to concentrate on this season -- their first J.League title.

2007 Finish: 5th Place
2008 Forecast: 1st-2nd Place

Not that this has any direct impact on Gamba. Its just a reflection of the fact that football has caught on very well in the Kanto area, and regions further north-east. Some would say that it is even starting to rival baseball in terms of fan numbers. Western Japan, however, is still stickball country. As good as Gamba is, as a team, and for all their relative success in recent years, they still struggle to draw as many fans as some of the more mediocre clubs in Kanto. Eventually, this has to have an impact on competititveness.

This year, we think that the Osaka Boys will still be competitive enough to vie with the other league powers, but we do not see them managing another league title. Other clubs continue to add quality personnel and build their teams both for the present and for the future. Gamba has an excellent youth system which allows them to keep ub, albeit just barely. However, they do not have the finances to make the sort of off-season acquisitions that other top teams are making, in pursuit of a title. Gamba's signings this year were all very intelligent moves -- perhaps a tribute to coach Nishino and his staff, who are surely the most important factor in Gamba's continuing success. However, while Yuki Mizumoto and Yohei Fukumoto are both promising young defenders who will surely see plenty of action, they really are not "additions" perse -- they merely step in to fill the shoes of Sidiclei and Satoshi Yamaguchi, who have moved past their "best if used by..." date. Lucas Severino, meanwhile, is probably talented enough to make a contribution this year, but it would be a stretch to call him the equal of Magno Alves, who jumped ship at the end of last season.

There is one player who Gamba picked up this year that could turn out to be a key acquisition. Mineiro, a young defensive winger from Brazil, has shown excellent speed and good two-way abilities. The only problem is that he may be forced to share time with Michihiro Yashuda, who s blossoming into perhaps Japan's best left wing back since Naoki Soma. In any event, it isnt hard to see why Gamba sent U-23 NT player Akihiro Ienaga on loan to Oita Trinita -- the Gamba left sideline is already too crowded with talent.

As we predicted last year, Jader "Bare: Spindler has been only a qualified suddess for Gamba. Though he definitely will get his share of goals, his skills are not very broad or flexible. Bare is brilliant when he has the ball at his feet and room to move. But due to the nature of Gamba's team play, he only finds himself in such situations two or three times a match. When forced to work through traffic, Bare is less effective, and he is almost mediocre as a target man in front of the net. Having said that, the acquisition of Lucas was very clever in one sense. Though Lucas may not be a particularly brilliant striker himself, he excels in exactly the areas where Bare is weak. And vice-versa. By pairing a galloping penetrator with a goal-mouth poacher, coach Nishino may be hoping that he can maximize the contributions of both players.

If the division of responsibilities up front is successful, perhaps Gamba will be able to give the other top contendors a run for their money this season. However, we think that the team is already past its peak. Players like Tomokazu Myojin, Akira Kaji, Ryuji Bando and Yasuhito Endo are all approaching 30, and though not exactly "old", they can no longer be expected to improve from year to year. Other teams, by comparison, ARE getting better and better with each passing year.

On the other hand, Gamba does have the experience, poise, and coaching skill to go a long way in the ACL. At least potentially speaking, Gamba might decide that it is more productive to focus on achieving success in Asia, even if that means slipping out of the title chase in the J.League. Certainly the year-end payoff of an ACL title and a trip to the World Club Championships would give Gamba the one thing that they most need right now -- an injection of cash to pick up two or three top-notch team leaders, who can take over when the likes of Endo, Kaji and Myojin start to move onto the downhill slope of their careers.

2007 Finish: 3rd Place
2008 Forecast: 3rd-5th Place

Although Grampus does have a number of talented young prospects, none of them have emerged with the sort of talent and leadership qualities required to carry the team very far above mid-table. The only player who showed signs of possibly maturing into such a role -- Keisuke Honda -- bid Nagoya (and Japan) farewell in January and jetted off to Holland. Former coach Sef Vergoossen apparently smoothed the path for this move, and though Honda finds himself at the extremely low end of the ladder, in the form of strugglers VVV Venlo, this appears to be just a stepping stone to a larger club (posssibly Vergoosen's PSV Eindhoven) next season.

The return of Dragan Stojkovic to the club, as the new head coach, se4ems to hearken back to a more competitive era in the team's history. But Pixy will have his work cut out for him if he hoppes to revisit even the modest successes the team achieved when he was a player. At the moment, Grampus seems to exude mediocrity, and though the addition of Magnum Tavares to fill the hole left by Honda should ensure slightly better service to ace striker Frode Johnsen, we cant picture the team moving very far above mid-table with the current personnel.

Of the acquisitions that Grampus made in the off-season, the most promising contributors (apart from Magnum) are veteran defender Takashi Miki, who should add some depth and experience to the back line, and Masaki Fukai, who may be able to generate some energy and intensity in the heart of the attacking midfield. Fukai has quite a bit in common with his new head coach -- a small yet fiercely combative player with sudden speed, dribbling skill and boundless energy. We will be particularly interested to see whether Stojkovic has a role for him in the starting lineup. However, Fukai's diminutive shoulders are surely not broad enough to carry the team far without a lot more support than Grampus can offer at the moment. The emotional boost of having Pixy back in the fold may allow the team to punch above their weight class, but even if they do, that still will leave them two or three giant steps below the championship contenders.

2007 Finish: 11th Place
2008 Forecast: 9th-11th Place

But in reality, it simply created false hope for players who started to fancy themselves as authentic, international-quality stars. When the team slumped towards the lower end of the table, last season, the disparity between their dreams and the harsh reality created a rift within the team, and the only way to repair it was to allow half of the team to move elsewhere in the off-season. Naotake Hanyu, Satoru Yamagishi, Yuto Sato, Koki Mizuno and Yuki Mizumoto all bid Chiba farewell, leaving little more than a disorganized mob vor incoming coach Josip Kuze to try to restructure into a football team.

Not all the new is bad. JEF did manage to lure back Masataka Sakamoto, who sasnt seeing enough first-team action in Niigata to satisfy him. They also signed three players who -- while clearly possessing some talent -- were unable to fit smoothly into their previous teams. Midfielders Yuta Baba (FC Tokyo) and Tatsuya Yazawa (Kashiwa Reysol) as well as defender Ryota Aoki (Gamba Osaka) can probably make some sort of contribution to the team this season. The question is whether it will be enough to offset the outflow of talent.

At the end of the day, a lot will depend on the skills of Mr. Kuze. JEF still has a knack for locating talented youngsters, and if they receive the right sort of leadership and tutelage they may manage to coalece soon enough to avoid relegation. However, the prospects are not particularly favorable, and the longer-term prospects are even worse. Last season we made the following observation: "JEF has been hemhorraging talent for years, and at some point the remaining "stars" are bound to start asking themselves whether it is worth battling to save the ship, only to take in more water at the end of this season. Players like Naotake Hanyu, Satoru Yamagishi, Hiroki Mizumoto and Seiichiro Maki, in particular, may start thinking about abandoning ship themselves, bevore they find themselves as the only able body left on deck."

Of the four players we named, only one is still with the club in 2008. When even the rats start abandoning ship, everyone else on board must surely wonder when would be a good time to start swimming. If the team should find itself below the waterline at mid-season, that would be a good time to stop bailing and start swimming.

2007 Finish: 13th Place
2008 Forecast: 16th-18th Place

After years of predicting that Jubilo might be able to rejoin the league leaders once they negotiated a change of generatons, it was rather disappointing to see the team struggle, last year. But that does not mean that our evaluation of the team's players was necessarily misplaced. There were lots of occasions in which the individuals seemed to race about the pitch with a dazzling sharpness that bordered on sheer genius -- except that the ten field players seemed to be running in ten different directions. With the addition of Yuichi Komano and Hiroki Banda, Jubilo will have an even deeper pool of talent. Now the only question is whether or not they can start playing effectively as a team, rather than as eleven individuals.

The simple answer to that question is: "nobody has the slightest idea". Comparing the different pre-season analyses provided by the major weekly soccer magazines, it looks like nobody even has a good guess of who will be in the starting lineup. Organizationally speaking, the initial indications are also a bit pessimistic. Atsuchi Uchiyama remains in the head coach position that he assumed after Adilson was fired in mid-season, but his incoming "assistant" is Masaki Yanagishita, a Jubilo "old boy" who has served as Jubilo head coach in the past. It almost looks like the front office is setting Uchiyama up as a sacrificial lamb, to slaughter when the team fails to perform well over the first few months of the season.

There is no way to be sure what we can expect of Jubilo this year until we have a chance to see them playing as a team. On paper they look like a team that could join the frontrunners at any time. But football is not played on paper; it is played on grass. The competition in the J.League this season will be fierce, and it is entirely possible that Jubilo could even slip below last-year's ninth-place. Nevertheless, they clearly have the talent to do far more, and we do not think the squad will be as fragmented and uncertain as they were in 2007, regardless of who is in the coaching chair. For the time being we predict that they will finish just behind the frontrunners, and we see at least an outside possibility that they could join the title chase, even if a championship appears to be out of their reach this season.

2006 Finish: 9th Place
2007 Forecast: 5th-7th Place

This year the Marinos front office has brought in a far more experienced hand to steer the Marinos: Takeshi Kuwahara led Jubilo to two separate championship titles despite the fact that he never was very popular in Iwata and stepped down avter each of his title seasons (only to see the team fall apart once he was gone). Kuwahara has a very similar reputation to that of Takeshi Okada, who steered the Marinos to back-to-back titles in 2003 and 2004 -- he knows how to get the most out of individual players. While he may not be a strategic genius, Kuwahara is a good person to turn to if the team wants to rediscover the harmony and coordination (well . . . relatively speaking) that Okada brought to this historically fractious team.

Yokohama does have a good base on which to build. The team includes both experience -- in the form of veterans like Yuji Nakazawa and Naoki Matsuda -- and youth. It has speed in playres like Koji Yamase, Daisuke Sakata and Yoshinobu Komiyama, as well as power and physicality, in the form of Lopes (newly acquired from Vegalta Sendai) and Ryuki Kawai.

Nevertheless, the Marinos still do not match up very well against the top title contenders. The team is not particularly deep, and it will need to depend on newcomers (Lopes and Roni Santos, in particular) for a lot of its offense. Yokohama does have a lot of talented youngsters who -- at least potentially -- could help the team return to the ranks of title contenders in a few years. For now, however, we think that a mid-table finish is more likely.

2006 Finish: 7th Place
2007 Forecast: 7th-9th Place

Lest they suffer through another season of near-misses and qualified success, the club opened its huge private Swiss bank account and splashed out cash once again in the off-season to lure the best players that money could buy. The lavish spending lured Naohiro Takahara back from Europe, landed U-23 star prospect Tsukasa Umesaki, and landed Albirex Niigata's former ace striker Edmilson. Although Urawa somehow neglected to sign David Beckham when he was available, that was about the only example we can think of in which the team missed an opportunity to stuff its roster and upgrade its "brand value"

Now the question is, will money be enough to buy the Reds another title?

Here is the answer:

Yes, those of you who have been following the Rising Sun News for any length of time will be quite familiar with our well-worn theory of Blind Faith. In footballing terms, what this means is that a football pitch -- even one as expansive as Saitama Stadium -- only has room enough to accomodate a certain volume of ego. Onc you have too many egos to fit onto the pitch, the Blind Faith effect kicks in. It doesnt matter how many superstars might be in the lineup, the result is a spectacular flop.

Naturally, we are taking a bit of a risk by selecting Urawa as our "Blind Faith" award winner for 2008. There is no denying the talent and potential that this team has on tap. If the Reds do, somehow, manage to subdue their individual egos enough to fit on a single football pitch, then there is no other team in the J.League that will be able to keep up. Even Frontale, Antlers and Gamba will fall by the wayside as the Reds cruise to a title -- possibly in record time.

But we just dont see it happening. Past experience suggests that the Reds will blow hot and cold all season long, achieving enough blowout victories to remain in the title race, but falling victim to their lack of cohesion as they approach the final hurdle. On the other hand, Urawa does have a buye through te gruelling qualification round of the ACL, and will not join the fray until the knockout stages. This will put them in a very advantageous position relative to the other teams in the ACL, and we would not be too surprised to see the team raise another continental title this season. Perhaps that will allow the team's increasingly demanding fans to console themselves at the lack of any domestic silverware.

2007 Finish: 2nd Place
2008 Forecast: 2nd-4th Place

Kashiwa still has a few veterans around to provide structure, such as defensive cornerstone Masahiro Koga and keeper Yuta Minami. However, this is a completely different club from the one that slipped into relegation back in 2005. Apart from Minami, about the only Reysol "old-timer" who is still around is Hideaki Kitajima, a former national team striker who is now just a bit part player. The rest of the team is completely new, despite its continued reputation for tough, physical play.

During the offseason, Reysol added a few newcomers who we think can make valuable contributions in 2008. Avispa Fukuoka's Alex de Melo Santos is a very versatile player who can fill in at either midfield or the left wing back position, while journeyman Takehito Shigehara will battle away in the trenches and run until he drops, regardless of where you put him on the field. Although they still appear to be on a slightly different competitive plane from the true title contenders, and the squad does not have a lot of depth, we think that Reysol will once again be able to punch above their weight, based on hard work and high energy levels. If key players can avoid injury, they should be able to edge slightly higher than last year's eighth-place finsh.

2007 Finish: 8th Place
2008 Forecast: 5th-7th Place

Well, for one, the team has aqcuired Sidiclei from Gamba Osaka to shore up the center of their defence. Although the shiny-pated Brazilian is starting to show his age, he is definitely a big, powerful and clever-footed stalwart to build the defensive line around. This isnt Sidiclei's first visit to Kyoto. He played for the team in 1999, which happens to be the last time that Sanga managed to remain in the J1 for more than a single season. Then again, prior to 1999 there wasnt a J2, and therefore there wasnt any relegation. Oh well, it may not be the best of omens, but its better than nothing.

Apart from Sidiclei, the team's biggest off-season acquisition is Atsushi Yanagisawa, a player who is most famous for missing an unguarded net from ten meters out, in the 2006 World Cup match against Croatia. Not to dismiss his capabilities completely -- we have always viewed Yanagisawa as an extremely good team player and one who can do a lot of things other than score. The problem is that he can only do a lot of things OTHER THAN score.

There are a few other playres that can also help Sanga to improve somewhat compared with last season (when they just scraped through to promotion in the playoff against Sanfrecce. Tatsuya Masushima is a decent defender and both Yuto Sato and Takaaki Tosushige have contributed to solid J1 clubs in the past. All in all, Kyoto stacks up reasonably well against the other three top relegation candidates, so their situation in 2008 is far from hopeless. However, unlike the others, Sanga will not only be fighting against the rest of the league -- they must also struggle against the weight of history. And history says that they will be going down, After all, once a yo-yo finishes goiing up, there is only one place for it to go next.

2007 Finish: 3rd Place (J2)
2008 Forecast: 16th-18th Place

Players like Jungo Fujimoto, Takuma Edamura, Naoaki Aoyama, Akihiro Hyodo and Takuro Yajima are moving into what should be the most productive period of their careers, while veterans like Teruyoshi Ito, Daisuke Ichikawa and Takahiro Yamanishi still make very effective contributions to the squad, offering depth and experience. The team should be even deeper this season with the addition of two of this year's most promising rookies -- Takuya Honda and the delightfully named Genki Omae (for those who dont speak Japanese, imagine an MLS player named "Howzit Hangin", or an A-League rookie named "Giday Mayte"). So perhaps this will be the year when the Wingheads finally claim some silverware.

That is certainly a possibility. However, coach Hasegawa's remarkable skill in forging an effective team concept has perhaps caused some Shimizu fans to overestimate the underlying skill level of each individual player. Though all of the players named above are quite talented, only Fujimoto and possibly Edamura show signs of achieving an international level of quality. The others can all do at least one thing effectively, and so long as they stick to the script that Hasegawa prepares for them, it can produce good results. But at some point opposing teams will start to identify and attack the areas of weakness that most S-Pulse players still exhibit. When that happens, either they discover a way to overcome their shortcomings, or they start sinking back into mediocrity.

There is no doubt that S-Pulse will be a thrilling team to watch, in 2008. However, the loss of Korean ace Cho Jae-jin will definitely hurt the team at the offensive end, and we do not think that there are any other players currently on roster who can step in to fill the gap. A few more key additions could turn S-Pulse into a title contender. At the moment, though, they still appear to fall short. And the risk is that they may finally come to terms with this fact, themselves. If that happens, it will take all the motivational skill coach Hasegawa can muster to keep the team from slipping back towards mid-table.

2004 Finish: 4th
2007 Forecast: 4th-6th Place

Thats right . . . the latter.

As the years pass, our preferred nickname for Tokyo's team -- the Capitol City Blues -- seems more and more appropriate. As they say in Mississippi, "in order to play the blues, you have to live the blues". Well, this is one blue team; thats for sure. Despite fielding some of the most technically and physically gifted youngsters in Japan, Tokyo has flirted with relegation for years. Some would say that the team is cursed, and indeed, bad luck does seem to follow Tokyo players around. Injuries have plagued key players , and somehow Tokyo never seems to perform at anywhere near the level that oune would expect based on the sum of the parts. It seems more than likely that this malaise will continue in 2008.

It can be very frustrating to analyse a team like Tokyo piece by piece, because you are constantly seeing players and situations which ought to encourage optimism. "Surely this season he will be able to contribute more than he did last year. Surely he will start to fulfill his potential at last." But then you recall what happened last year, and the year before that. And the year before that. After a player has disappointed you four, five or six seasons in a row, you eventually have to sigh and just admit that your expectations must have been misplaced.

This year Tokyo will come under the tutelage of Hiroshi Jofuku, a former Japan U-20 coach who has a very keen football mind and a dazzling reputation with former youth players. If anyone can get Tokyo's poorly-tuned gas turbines firing effectively, he certainly seems to be the right candidate. The addition of Bruno Quadros and Hideki Sahara should add a bit more solidity to the back line, which has been Tokyo's weakest point in recent years. However, the loss of both Lucas and Rychelly leaves Sota Hirayama as the team's "ace" striker. If the kid ever does manage to fulfill the tremendous potential he showed as a teenager, that would certainly go a long way towards making Tokyo a competitive team. But once again we have to ask ourselves the question -- how many times can a player disappoint you before you finally just give up on

After finishing 13th in 2006 and 12th in 2007, Tokyo will certainly have a hard time disappointing their fans any more than they have in the recent past. They may be moving in the right direction, but at this pace, Hirayama will be 33 years old before the Capitol City Blues win a title. As we have said many times before, this team does have the POTENTIAL to be a strong challenger. But if forced to put our money on the line, we will bet on yet another frustrating, incremental step forward, to around mid-table.

2006 Finish: 12th
2007 Forecast: 9th-11th Place

Therefore we are a bit sad to have to reach this conclusion. But try as we might, we cannot find any convincing reasons to change the initial impression we recieved after looking at the off-season "ins and outs" (see the table below). For all the hard work that Pericles Chamusca has put in over the past three seasons, turning perennial also-rans into a competetive midtable club, last year Trinita began slipping back towards the bottom end of the table. Following the departure of key players like Tsubasa Umesaki, Masato Yamazaki, Shota Matsuhashi and Yohei Fukumoto, it will take every bit of skill that Chamusca possesses to keep the team from avoiding the drop. As if to eliminate any doubts we may have had, the team announced last week that their big off-season acquisition, Akihiro Ienaga, had injured himself badly and would be out for at least six months. With Ueslei joining the attacking line alongside Daiki Takahashi, you the team may as well start selling tickets to J2 venues right now, so fans can get a head start on their 2009 travel plans.

Unfortunately for Trinita fans, good coaching can only take you so far. Eventually the team needs to acquire talented players or they just cant progress any further. Perhaps Chamusca's skillful use of personnel can keep Trinita in the J1 for another year. But at some point, water always returns to sea level,. Considering the increasing competitiveness of the J1, we strongly suspect that Oita will join all the rest of the Kyushu clubs in the J2 next season. At least it will help keep down travel expenses.

2006 Finish: 14th
2007 Forecast: 16th-18th Place

If we had to sum up Tokyo Verdy in one word, there is no question what that word would be: Old!
OK, they may not be Yokohama FC old, but that hasnt stopped the Yunker vendors and ArtNature Hair Check salesmen from setting up shop outside the gates of Ajinomoto Stadium. Just take a look at the logo on the front of their monochrome Kappa-brand uniforms. "Ameba", it says. "Ameba?" The dictionary offers the following explanation:

Ameba: n. [ModLat < Gr amoibe] 1. A shapeless, one-celled microscopic organism found in soil and water, reproducing mainly by fission. 2. Something indefinite in shape or perpetually changing. A shapeless mass of protoplasm with rapidly changing shape and indistinct form.

Yup. Webster's nailed it.

Not to be overly facetious, but a few years ago we criticized Verdy for trying to relive the past, and turn itself into the Verdy of 1993. Well, not it appears that they are trying to turn themselves into the Jubilo of 1999. Hey, is Carlos Dunga still available? Oh right, hes coaching Brazil these days. Still, it might be worth a phone call....

Probably the best thing that could happen to Verdy would be for them to get knocked right back into the J2. Until the team makes some REAL changes, they will be living on borrowed time. However, we do think that they are more competitive this season than they were in 2005, when they fell to relegation. Players like Takashi Fukunishi and Toshihiro Hattori may be a bit long in the tooth, but as a whole, the team is nowhere near as geriatric as Yokohama FC were, last season. With just a bit of luck they should be able to preserve their spot in the J1 for another year. But the team will need to start rebuilding right away, or their prospects will only be that much dimmer in 2009.

2007 Finish: 3rd Place (J2)

2008 Forecast: 14th-16th Place

Vissel Kobe may have been the most inconsistent team in the entire league last year. One look at the list of results is enough to make that apparent. Three draws in a row, then three victories, followed by a loss, a win, and then five straight losses against the likes of Jef and Yokohama FC. They followed up that streak with their 5-0 drubbing of Grampus, and then ran off another three straight wins, before finishing out the season with three consecutive draws. One is tempted to draw parallels to Dr. Jeckyll and Mr. Hyde, but when Yoshito Okubo is suddenly seized by an attack of his chronic eye-twitch, you wonder if maybe that description is hitting a little bit too close to home.

One interesting bit of trivia this season is that Kobe has finally reunited Okubo with his high school strike partner Shota Matsuhashi. Another Kunimi HS teammate, keeper Kenta Tokushige, is also on the squad. Perhaps if Hiroshi Mikitani would go out and sign legendary coach Tadatoshi Komine to steer the squad, we could get even more entusiastic about the team's prospects for winning a title.

Given the team's extreme inconsistency last season, and the fact that they still seem to be a notch below the J1 median in terms of player quality, we suspect that a mid-table finish is a lot more likely. We certainly do not see any silverware in Vissel's short-term future. Perhaps one day Mr. Mikitani will finally open up his wallet and make the investments he promised when he acquired the team. But it wont happen this year.

2007 Finish: 10th Place
2008 Forecast: 9th-11th Place

J2 Forecasts for 2008

From the time they joined the J.League, in 1996, until 2001, when they were finally relegated, Avispa Fukuoka lived in the basement of the league, struggling in just about every area you can name. The team was remarkable only in the category of goalkeeping, and in the number of yellow and red cards received. Avispa repeatedly led the league by a wide margin in disciplinary infractions, and were well known for their rough, physical tactics. However, this was not enough to offset the lack of actual soccer-playing ability. Finally, after narrowly escaping demotion for several years running, Avispa dropped into the J2 in 2001, and abart from one breif return in 2006, have remained there ever since.

Last season, Avispa resumed the long slog towards respectability, hiring former Yokohama FC and Sydney FC coach Pierre Littbarsky to begin putting together a team that can regain the J1 and stay there. Although we think that Avispa are a healthier club in organizational terms from the one that struggled throughout the late 1990s, we think they will have a tough time making it back to the top-flight this season. It isnt that the team is so bad; its just that the competition appears to be just a shade better.

The highlights of the YellowJackets' offseason effort to build the roster are the Australian pair of Mark Rudan and Ufuk Talay, and Yokohama Marinos beanpole Mike Havenaar, acquired on loan. These three acquisitions certainly make Avispa a much "bigger" team, but it remains to be seen whether it will make team any better. Rudan and Talay were not exactly "superstars" in the A-League, and though Australian football has its strengths, technique isnt one of them. Perhaps Coach Litty is betting that the two can use their physical gifts against smaller Japanese opponents to offset any weaknesses in technical skill. THis idea isnt completely misguided, but it has to be viewed, at best, as a bit of a gamble.

Havenaar represents a gamble of a slightly different nature. There is no denying that the 194-cm striker has some legitimate strengths as a center forward, and not merely due to his height. Havenaar also shows some very impressive ball skills when playing on the deck. The problem is that he is still a very raw and unpolished player, and that is exactly why the Marinos sent him to the J2 for as year. Aftert two seasons as a late substitute, Havenaar still has not found the net as pro, and despite flashes of talent, he looked quite out of place in the J1. If Litty wants to get a solid contribution from the kid, he needs to give hiim a lot of first-team action and be patient as he develops in both ability and confidence. With the right guidance, Havenaar could mature into a top-quality striker by the end of the year. But the question Avispa fans must ask themselves is -- will that happen soon enough to get the team into contention for a promotion spot.

While we cant write off the Yellowjackets as a potential promotion candidate (certainly not until we see the three "big men" in action), we think that the core of the team is still just bit less talented and less polished than the leading opponents -- Sanfrecce, Vegalta and Cerezo. Consequently, we have to assume that they will still be in the J2 next season

2007 Finish: 7th Place
2008 Forecast: 4th-6th Place

Sometimes it is hard to believe that this was once considered one of the most competitive clubs in the J.League. Back in the mid-90s, when it boasted such players as Hidetoshi Nakata, Akira Narahashi, Makoto Kakegawa, Teruo Iwamoto, Wagner Lopes, Kazuaki Tasaka, Hong Myung-Bo and Pavel Badea, Bellmare Hiratsuka"s prospects of becoming one of the league's "big clubs" were considered at least as good as those of the Marinos or Flugels, and surely better than those of Kawasaki Frontale. Since its reorganization under the name Shonan Bellmare, however, the club from the "surfers' paradise" southwest of Tokyo and Yokohama has acquired a laid-back, if not downright lazy attitude towards participation in the J.League. Although Bellmare has a decent fan base, and usually manages to look at least respectable, the club is no longer even a shadow of the team it was back in the League's early years. Bellmare seems to be content with its lot, which is somewhere around the middle of the J2 league table. This is a shame, given the much more competitive history that this part of the country once claimed.

In recent years, Bellmare have fallen back on the usual strategy adopted by weaker clubs, of scavanging useful veterans from the low end of the J1 rosters. This year, the team has not done much to change that pattern, and its youth programme is -- if anything -- growing even weaker as time goes on. Perhaps the only move with any real promise was the signing of Abraham Lincoln Martins, who had a reasonably solid debut at Avispa last season, with 16 goals in 39 appearances. Sandwiched between Yokohama and the Shizuoka soccer heartland, the Shonan region should be prime territory for a competitive club, but Shonan doesnt seem to have developed the sort of local "identity" that sustains far smaller clubs in Yamagata, Kofu, Oita, Ehime and Tokushima. Last year, there was some hope that the addition of a number of J.League veterans like Toshihide Saito, Jean Carlo Witte and Hiratsuka-era returnee Akira Narahashi could turn the team's fortunes around. But Bellmare faded as the season went along and finished in its usual mediocre spot, just above mid-table.

Nothing has changed this year to suggest that things are getting any better. If the team was unable to sustain the necessary results over a 48-match season, last year, there is no reason to suspect any better results this year, with numerous core players one year older and one step closer to retirement. Although the expansion of the league this season may add a few teams that Shonan will be able to defeat, the way things are going, many of these teams will probably pass Bellmare by eventually. Without a major change of attitude and direction, fans in the area are probably better off spending their summer afternoons at the beach.

2007 Finish: 6th Place
2008 Forecast: 6th-8th Place

Two years ago, when the Flaming Pinks of southern Osaka first found themselves in the J2, there were very high hopes that the team would be able to regroup and jump right back into the J1, in a single season. The club managed to convince a lot of the team's top players to stick around for a year in the lower division, promising to show their gratitude when Cerezo returned to the J1. But

But after falling short in 2006, and then struggling even more desperately in early 2007, a lot of players have lost faith and are starting to consider other options. Cerezo does have a fairly talented core of players, particularly defenders like Kenjiro Ezoe and Kazuya Maeda, and young guns Yoichiro Kakitani and Yasuhito Morishima in the front line. Team captain and team trademark, Hiroaki Morishima, should still have at least one good season left in him if he can avoid injury. And though they did not do a lot of horse-trading over the winter, Cerezo did pick up one or two players who can make an immediate contribution, such as former Frontale keeper Takashi Aizawa and defender Hiroyuki Omata.

The danger that Cerezo faces is that if they fail to make the climb back to J1 this season, Morishima the Elder will probably retire and Morishima the YOunger will probably want to move on to a J1 team, where he belongs. Maeda and Ezoe might be tempted to follow, and though Kakitani is still a teenager, who probably remains loyal to his home town, it would be tough for him (or the front office) to say no if a team like Urawa or Gamba come along and offers the sort of money that this highly promising youngster is worth.

From that perspective, Cerezo will be under serious pressure to perform, this season. Perhaps it will motivate them enough to raise their performances and climb into the top three. However, failure could doom the team to a round of rebuilding, and the prospect of another 2-3 years as second-class J.Leaguers. Its now or never. And if the Flaming Pinks do make it, we think they will do so by the slimmest of margins.

2007 Finish: 5th Place
2008 Forecast: 3rd-4th Place

In 2006, as J2 newcomers, Ehime FC turned in the strongest performance of any newly promoted team this century, finishing in ninth place and drawing a relatively solid average attendance of 4100. The adrenaline and euphoria of their rise from nowhere to J.League success in just seven seasons clearly carried the team to greater exertions than what you might expect from a collection of amateurs -- which is really what Ehime were back in 2006.

Last season, the euphoria had passed, and the Terrible Tangerines seemed to lose some of their flavour. Attendances dipped to a 3300 avearge and the team slipped a notch to 10th place. At first glance this might cause viewers to worry about the team's longer-term viability. But if you look closer, the picture is quite a bit more encouraging. If we examine the performances of recently promoted team over the past several years, you see a fairly clear pattern emerging. In the first season after their promotion, the club rewards the hard-working but nevertheless "amateur" players who helped carry the club to professional status by letting them play out one season in the J.League. Since these players have typically been together for several years, have a strong team spirit and considerable veteran experience, they tend to perform slightly better as a team than one might suspect based merely on an analysis of the individuals.

However, it quickly becomes apparent that many of the "veterans" of the team's promotion campaign are already playing at the highest level they ever will be able to achieve. And indeed, they may even be playing above their heads, using adrenaline and hard work to mke up for mediocre skills. If the team is ever to move on, and start aiming for a higher spot in the J2 league table . . . and perhaps one day a climb into the top division . . . it needs to cut loose the players that brought them to the J.League and start acquiring a new "core" of younger, more talented players who have the underlying skill to achieve greater success.

But teams face a difficult dilemma as they make this transformation; by changing the guard, they lose the merits of experience, team cohesion and morale which often were a key factor in success. In their second or third season after promotion these teams probably must accept that performances will drop off, at least temporarily, until a new foundation for the team has been established. A close look at the players who left Ehime both last season and at the start of this year confirms that the club is making just such a transition. The question is not "why did they slip downtable in 2007", but rather "how long must we wait before the Tangerines begin to climb upward once more.

Well, nobody can say for certain, but we would not be surprised to see a substantial improvement this year. Ehime has done an extremely good job, on a very limited budget, of attracting youngsters who show good promise. The core of the team is now in its early to mid-20s, and several are former J1 squad players who accepted a move to Ehime in order to get regular playing time. Though they still have a long way to go before they can be considered one of the more competitive J2 team, we would not be surprised to see Ehime climb to midtable this season. For the time being, we have tipped them to improve just marginally from last season's tenth place. But this is a team that should improve as they get more experience as a unit, so if Ehime manage to make a strong start, dont be too surprised if they move into the second tier of J2 competitors, just behind the promotion candidates.

2007 Finish: 10th Place
2008 Forecast: 8th-10th Place

For sentimental reasons, the Rising Sun News would like nothing better than to see this team regain some of the past glory of the Yokohama Flugels franchise. If nothing else, it would provide an interesting derby contest to help liven up the football scene in Yokohama. But with the retirement of Motohiro Yamaguchi at the end of last season, the only remaining link to the Flugels era is an aging Atsuhiro Miura, whose performances at the tail end of last season made him look efen older than his geriatric namesake and teammate, Kazu Miura. And those are about the only two players who did NOT leave the club at the end of last season.

As we prepared to write our league forecasts for this season, we spent a lot of time thinking about what we should say in order to giver readers a clear picture of what they can expect from Yokohama FC in 2008. But this morning we saw a headline in one of the sports tabloids:
"Kazu Pledges to Play in Every Match, This Year."

That just about says it all, doesnt it?

2007 Finish: Last Place (J1)
2008 Forecast: 7th-10th Place

Though we do not want Gifu fans to take this as an insult, the fact of the matter is that FC Gifu, as a team. are even older than Yokohama FC. The amazing story of Gifu's climb from the lowest level of the amateur pyramid to professonal status in a mere five seasons is one that will surely establish itself as a part of J.League folklore, and the efforts of Yasuyuki Moriyama to guide the team through that building process will be a lasting testament to him as both an organizer and as a player.

But the core strategy behind the team's sudden growth and development was to convince other J.League retirees, like Moriyama himself, to leave their rocking chairs and lace up their old cleats for a final few seasons in the sun. Yasuhiro Yoshida announced his retirement over two years ago. Takayuki Komine retired in 2005, as well. Shinya Kawashima bid Avispa fans farewell in a retirement ceremony last season, and though Shinya Nasu, Takashi Umeda, Hiromi Kojima and Mitsunori Yabuta never formally retired, all had served 12 seasons or more in the J.League before agreeing to join Gifu FC

That isnt to say that Gifu is a Senior-Citizens-only organization. The team has picked up a number of youngsters both from the low end of rosters of other J1 and J2 clubs, and from a fairly competitive youth program. Although this team certainly is not in any condition to start playing against J1 opponents, it should have enough depth, enough experience, and yet enough energy to look respectable at the J2 level. Naturally, Gifu is going to have to build a younger squad over the next 2-3 years, and it seems likely that the team will fade as the season stretches on, and old legs begin to tire.Nevertheless, we think that Gifu can claim their share of success in 2008, and possibly move as high as midtable before the old-timers complete their final season in the sun, and the team has to start retooling the lineup

2006 Finish: 3rd Place (JFL)
2007 Forecast: 7th-10th Place

Although Mito Hollyhock's finances seem to be healthy, at long last, the team still shows no sign of developing into anything other than an also-ran, making up the numbers in the J2. Financial and organizational support from their prefectural neighbour, Kashima Antlers, may have helped the team to avoid bankruptcy, but it has also prevented the team from developing much of an independent image. It might seem odd that a club from a city with a rich and independent historical background (Mito was the family seat of one of the three extended samurai families that dominated the Tokugawa shogunate) should have so much difficulty generating "local pride", but it seems that the local feelings of people in Ibaraki prefecture have already been monopolised by the Antlers. Mito is little more than an afterthought. Hollyhock is on the verge of becoming nothing more than a "farm club" for the Antlers, in its image as well as in its financial structure.

It must be said that the club has not done much to address this problem. The head office may talk a lot about appealing to a grassroots fan base, and leveraging local pride, but they have not done a very good job of developing that sort of sentiment. Incredibly, only two players on the team hail from Ibaraki prefecture, and one of them is a newcomer -- the first player in recent memory who was promoted from Hollyhock's youth team. Mito has not even managed to tap the flow of players from the two Ibaraki-based universities -- Ryutsu Keizai U. and Tsukuba U. -- both of which are renowned as football powers at the university level. When a team is so detached from its regional base that it cant even attract the local schoolboys, you have to wonder what is going on in the minds of team management.

Amazingly, Hollyhock managed to avoid finishing dead last in 2007. However, this probably has more to do with the apalling performances of Vortis Tokushima than any "accomplishments" by Mito itself. And though they added a lot of younngsters to the roster, youth is a merit that can easily be taken to dangerous extremes. A look at the players wearing the #1 through #10 jerseys for Hollyhock this season shows that only two of them have EVER scored a J.League goal, and the total tally for the entire lot is just three goals! The team is not completely bereft of veterans, but that statistic should tell you a bit about this team's lack of experience.

Two new teams are joining the J2 this season. Unfortunately, this is just an opportunity for Hollyhock to set a new mark for its lowest-level finish ever.

2007 Finish: 12th Place
2008 Forecast: 13th-15th Place

Over the first decade of its existence, Montedio Yamagata have had quite a few ups and downs. From time to time the team manages to give much bigger opponents a tough fight, and edges towards the top end of the table, but it has never managed to battle its way all the way into the top-flight division. And every time that the team looks like moving into the ranks of promotion candidates, a larger club comes along and snaps up all their top players..

This season Montedio has put together a group of hard-working players who may be able to achieve qualified success. But the roster is very thin, and injuries to either of the team's key loanees -- Rychelly, who has been borrowed from FC Tokyo, or Yohei Toyoda, on the second year of a loan from Nagoya Grampus -- could seriously dent their hopes of remaining competitive. For the time being, we are adopting a conservative forecast for the team this year, since opposing clubs seem to be so much more aggressive about improving their lot in life. It is hard to see Montedio moving much above the middle of the pack.

2007 Finish: 9th Place
2008 Forecast: 9th-12th Place

It is extremely difficult to make any sort of predictions about Roasso Kumamoto, this season, because so few of its players have ever played at the professional level before. Though Roasso does have a few veteran J.Leaguers to provide a base, such as Tomoaki Komorida, Kenichi Uemura and Tetsuhiro Kina , these players are not nearly as talented as the old-timers who form the core of FC Gifu, or who carried Yokohama FC for the past two seasons. Although Roasso seemed to play very effectively against JFL opposition -- achieving much greater success than Gifu -- that is no guarantee that they will be able to handle the greater competitiveness and gruelling schedule of a J2 season.

Much of the team's success this season will probably ride on the shoulders of striker Satoshi Nakayama -- acquired on loan from Gamba Osaka. Although "Naniwa-no-Gon" entered the league with much fanfare a few seasons ago, he has failed to develop or show consistent improvement, leading some in Osaka to assume that he may never manage to make it into the J1 club's roster. Surely Nakayama will be able to achieve more success against J2 opponents, but the question is whether he can also handle the burden of expectation, as Roasso's "ace" striker. If he does have a big year, Roasso may edge towards the middle of the J2 table. If not, the team is likely to struggle as most other newcomers have done in their inaugural season.

Kumamoto does have a very strong fan base, and excellent facilities. Judging from the roster, there is a good source of young talent both from the club's youth program and from Kyushu-area high schools and universities. The longer term prospects for Roasso, therefore, are relatively good. But this year fans may be forced to acccept that advancing through the ranks in the J.League is not as easy as getting there.

2007 Finish: 2nd Place (JFL
2008 Forecast: 12th-15th Place

After struggling through some financial difficulties in the early years of the century, Sagan Tosu had a breif spell of success in early2005, and by the midpoint of the season people were beginning to wonder if perhaps Sagan was on the road to respectability. Unfortunately, the team fell apart at the end of the year, and finished mid-table, in eighth place. Though the team managed to improve its finances somewhat, and is no longer in danger of total collapse, it slipped back into the mediocrity that it had begun to epitomize.

Some time during the 2006 off-season, Sagan Tosu's management apparently decided that the way to break out of this rut was to make a complete change of its club image, adopting new team colours, a new team logo, and redesigning everything about the club This may have been a good idea, in principle, since the old Sagan "image" was pretty dull, dated, and nondescript. However, the design change was a fiasco of epic proportions -- more hideous than even the day-glo technicolour chaos of the 1994 Nagoya Grampus keeper's uniform. The overall effect is a bit difficult to describe accurately. The uniform colors that the team chose were baby blue and light pink, and the logo mark looks a bit like some child's scribbling (the words "Sagan Tosu", in a cursive font, are arranged in the shape of a bluebird, which is the team's mascot). The overall impression is just . . . . well . . . how should I say this . . .

Gay

Not "gay", as in Brokeback Mountain gay. Not "stylish gay" or "gay chic", or even "Razor Ramon, Hard Gay". Just totally, stereotypically, limpwristedly, baby-blue-and-pink closet-queen

GAY!

Lest anyone misunderstand, this critique has no relation to sexual preference or anything along those lines. Its just that there is no other word that could possibly sum up how ridiculous the team looks, in its cute widdle baby-blue-and-pink uny forms. One independent blogger and long-time Rising Sun News reader has even taken to calling the club "Molly Ringwald FC" (you know . . . "Pretty in Pink?). In the past, we have noted that under the right conditions, pink can be a "cool" color for footballers. "It takes a tough man to wear pink", as the saying goes. And in the case of Cerezo Osaka's flaming pink color scheme, this is definitely the case. However, that analogy can only be stretched so far. There is pink . . . and then there is . . . . pink. Aw heck, just see for yourself:

Now certainly, it would be wrong to judge a team based on its uniforms. And there is also the possibility that opposing players will be laughing so hard that they wont be able to make accurate passes or shots. But in our view, just overcoming the embarassment of having to appear in public looking like the guests of honour at a baby shower is hard enough for the Sagan Tosu players. And finishing in the top half of the table will be an insurmountable one.

2007 Finish: 8th Place
2008 Forecast: 8th-10th Place

After last season's fiasco, and the ignominy of demotion to the J2, a lot of people have adopted a rather pessimistic stance on Sanfrecce Hiroshima. Given their atrocious performances last season -- particularly in crucial matches when they could have salvaged their spot in the J1 -- this is not difficult to understand. However, as disappointing as they may have been at times, last year, it is essential to keep in mind that this team is almost unchanged from the one that contested a J1 campaign last year -- a team that crushed FC Tokyo wit four goals on opening day 2007, and went on to post wins against the likes of SPulse, Grampus and Gamba.

Although they did lose a valuable player when Yuichi Komano jumped ship and moved to Jubilo Iwata, otherwise this team is as talented as it has ever been, and youngsters like Yosuke Kashiwagi, Tomoaki Makino and Ryuichi Hirashige are only going to get better as they have more and more experience under their belts. The team's relative youth from one end of the roster to the other may have hurt them a bit in the J1, last season, but it will be an overall benefit in the marathon battle that is the J2.

It is at least possible that one of the other top candidates will edge Sanfrecce out for the J2 title, this year. However, we really cannot imagine that this team will fail to earn promotion. There is simply too much talent and too much potential for even a mediocre coach like Mr. Petrovic to squander.

2007 Finish: 16th (J1)
2008 Forecast: 1st Place

Since entering the J.League in 2005, Thespa Kusatsu has been perhaps the most consistent team in the entire league. Unfortunately, in this case, consistency is not exactly something to be desired. Thespa finished in 12th place in 2005, 12th place in 2006, and in 2007, they narrowly missed making it three in a row, with a 12th place finish due primarily to Mito Hollyhock's accelerating deterioration, rather than anything Kusatsu themselves did to change their fortunes.

In actual fact, Thespa started out the season much better than they did in their previous two campaigns. However, injuries to kep players and a sudden midseason loss of form saw the Hot-Springs Bathers sink slowly into the depths once more.Although they did pick up a couple of promising young Koreans over the winter break, there has not been enough change at the core of the team to expect anything different than what Thespa have achieved in the past.

Dont argue with consistency. This is a team that produces exactly the sort of results it deserves.

2007 Finish: 11th Place
2008 Forecast: 11th Place

The last time that Vegalta Sendai was action in the top-flight division was five years ago, in 2003. Every year since then, the fans throughout Tohoku and even a good many sports pundits have predicted the team's impending return to the J1, and each time their hopes and dreams have been dashed as the Golden Eagles of the North Country noosedived right at the end of the season and finished just short of their goal.

For the first few years, the Rising Sun News was unwilling to get on the bandwagon. The team had very serious internal problems, poor coaching, and a somewhat basckward approach to the development of a competitive team. For a club that is as well supported as Sendai, and one which has no local competition whatsoever for talented youth players, this team ought to be building from the ground up, relying on youngsters from the local area and only poaching veterans from other teams on the rare occasions when they could get a good quality player who was going to be around for a number of years. Instead, the team stumbled along, hiring whatever modest talent popped up in the transfer market each year, and hoping it would be enough to take them back to the J1..

But last season we changed out stance, and tipped Vegalta to join the promotion express, alongside Verdy and Consadole. It looked like the team was finally starting to get the message, and begin building a team with care and consideration. In recent years, Vegalta has developed a strong relationship with the Antlers, acquiring several squad players on loan. Those young and relatively talented Kashima kids who couldnt quite crack the lineup but seemed good enough to deserve regular playing time were farmed out to Vegalta on loan, and after a year or two at the club, some of them were convinced to stick around on a full transfer. This is how the team acquired Yuki Nakashima, Kohei Tanaka and Kunimitsu Sekiguchi. Other J1 teams also provided some youngsters who promise to be around a while, such as Yugo Ichiyanagi, Takuto Hayashi and Shinya Tanoue.

However, for some reason Vegalta seem to have developed the habit of flaming out at the end of the year, and once again they fell just a bit short, failing to make it into the top-flight division. To make matters worse, the team had a relapse into its old ways over the winter break, signing a gaggle of the same old wayward veterans that earned Vegalta its long-lamented reputation as "The Island of Lost Boys". It is hard to see what sort of contributions players like Masashi Miyazawa, Tomoyuki Hirase or Kazunari Okayama can make to the team's promotion hopes. And all are far too "mature" to last more than a year or so on the Vegalta roster.

Nevertheless, we think that after five years of disappointment, the team may just have enough talent to finally make it back to the top flight. Borrowing a tactic that they seem to have learned from Kashima, Vegalta have left all of their roster spots for foreigners open, along with the shirt numbers 1, 3 and 9. The race for the J2 title is going to be a very tight one, but Vegalta are sure to be in it, and if we are reading their strategy correctly, they are going to wait until April or May to decide exactly which positions on the squad most need to be filled, then snap up some overseas players who are unhappy at their clubs but unable to move during the transfer windows that other leagues impose on teams. If they play their cards right, we not only expect the team to win promotion next season, but with just a bit of luck, we think they may also be able to pip Sanfrecce for the J2 trophy.

2007 Finish: 4th Place
2008 Forecast: 1st-3rd Place

Last season, Ventforet Kofu battled valiantly against a variety of hostile forces -- none more damaging than the team's own lack of funds -- and despite holding their own for 2/3 of the season, in the end they slipped into the relegation zone and were forced to return to the J2 to begin the difficult climb all over again. The team managed to hang on to most of its core players, and given the team's gritty performances over the past three years, one is tempted to guess that they will be able to make another bid for promotion, even if they fail to make it this time around.

Well, that still might happen. Unfortunately, while only a few players were lost over the winter, and a few promising replacements wer brought in, the team suffered what could prove to be a far more painful loss -- a self-inflicted wound due to misplaced "scapegoating" in the front office. Kofu thought they had to identify someone to take the fall for the team's demotion, and fired coach Takeshi Oki at the end of the season. Oki -- the architect of almost all of Ventforet's success in recent years -- was quickly snapped up by the National Team. Takeshi Okada knows a brilliant football mind when he sees one, and he pressed vigorously for the JFA to hire Oki to be his right-hand man. So while the Kai Dogs may still have the personnel needed to reach the finish line in this year's J2 marathon, they do not have the pilot who guided them to that goal in the past. The only ray of hope is the fact that Takayoshi Amma -- a largely inexperienced coach himself -- was Oki's assistant and closest confidant at Ventforet, and he is likely to stick with his mentor's game plan with virtually no elaborations.

Still, the Rising Sun News believes that it is impossible to overestimate how much of the team's success over the past three years was a testament to Oki's strategic brilliance and ability to motivate his players. Kofu will still be a tough opponent, and after tasting the excitement of a J1 campaign, the Fighting Faithful of Yamanashi will surely turn out in large numbers to urge the team towards another sojourn in the top-flight league. But at least this season, we think that they will probably fall just a bit short of that goal.

2007 Finish: 17th Place (J1)
2007 Forecast: 4th-6th Place

Tokushima Vortis turnned in a solid performance in their first season as a professional club, but since then it has been downhill all the way. With their next-door neighbours Ehime FC joining the J2 in 2006, we thought that the rivalry might stir up even greater intensity and competitiveness on the island of Shikoku, but all it really accomplished was to make Vortis the second-best team in the region.

Unfortunately, Vortis are still a relatively thin and inexperienced team. Whereas Ehime have done a good job of slowly making the transition from JFL to J2-quality players, Vortis seems to be just snapping up scraps by hiring any and all players that arent good enough to attract attention from any other professional team. Although Vegalta made more roster changes than just about any other team except Yokohama FC, the only player of any real note is former Verdy midfielder Jun Tamano, who rejoins the team permanently after spending a one-year loan stint here in 2006.

The one thing you can say about Vortis is that they have an ideal team name and symbol -- the famous whirlpools of Naruto which form every day as the tide surges in and out of the inland sea, through the straits just offshore from Tokushima. Like these whirlpools, Vortis seems to be spiralling down and down. Each new team added to the J.League just allows Vortis to find a new level of pusillanimity. The team is the very epitome of its symbol -- the whirlpool.

It sucks.

2007 Finish: 13th Place
2008 Forecast: 14th-15th Place